This monitoring period covers the harvest of maize in October and November in the Ukraine. Winter wheat was planted in September and October.

The whole country experienced warmer weather than usual, and average temperatures were 1.3°C above the 15YA. Rainfall was slighly below average (RAIN -5%) as well as solar radiation (RADPAR -10%). The agroclimatic conditions were favorable for the harvest of maize andthe sowing of winter wheat. Cropwatch estimates that the potential biomass was 7% above the 15YA. Agronomic indicators showed that the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) had increased by 20% and the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) reached 0.93, which means the crop development was generally good. In January, observed temperatures were much colder than usual.  The spatial distribution of NDVI showed that NDVI in nearly all the area was 0.2 units lower than average starting in mid-January, and the situation was more serious in eastern Ukraine as shown by the VCIx map. However, the drop in NDVI could also have been due to snow or cloud cover in the satellite images. In general, the conditions for winter wheat have been favorable so far.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses are provided below for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ), including the Central wheat area (including Poltava,Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts), Northern wheat area (including Rivne, Zhytomyr and Kiev oblasts), Eastern Carpathian hills (Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts) and Southern wheat and maize area (Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts).

The Eastern Carpathian hills and Northern wheat area shared generally similar patterns of crop development conditions in this period. The Eastern Carpathian hills recorded a rainfall deficit (-8%), while the Northern wheat area received normal rainfall (+1%). Average temperatures during this period in both areas were higher than average by 0.8°C and 1.1°C, respectively. Agronomic indictors showed high CALF (99% and 91%) and VCIx (0.94 and 0.96). As mentioned above, the drops in NDVI could have been due to cloud cover in the satellite images or snow. The conditions for these regions were fair.

Agroclimatic and agronomic conditions were similar in Central wheat area and Southern wheat and maize area. Both AEZs experienced a drier and warmer fall-winter period, and the rainfall was below average by 4% and 9%, while temperature was 1.3°C and 1.5°C higher for Central wheat area and Southern wheat and maize area, respectively. Based on these parameters, CropWatch predicted a potential biomass increase by 9% and 16% respectively for these two AEZs. The NDVI based crop condition graph indicated that both AEZs experienced close to or above average trends before mid-January. Crop conditions were favorable for these two regions.

Figure 3.41 Ukraine's crop condition, October 2020 - January 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                        (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central wheat area)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern wheat area)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern wheat and maize area)

Table 3.71 Ukraine agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  October 2020 - January 2021

Table 3.72 Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's valuesand departure from 5YA, October 2020 - January 2021