The reporting period covers the sowing and early growth stages of winter barley as well as of wheat, the two most important cereal crops in Uzbekistan. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, RAIN was very significantly below the fifteen-year average (RAIN -57%) except for mid-November and end of December. TEMP was also below the fifteen-year average by 2.3°C and RADPAR was above average by 4%. This combination of factors resulted in a decrease in biomass potential (BIOMSS -35%) compared to the fifteen-year average.

Crop conditions were below the five-year average. The national average VCIx was 0.78, but the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased by 36% compared to the five-year average.

Overall, the agroclimatic conditions in this monitoring season were unfavorable for the sowing and emergence of winter crops.

Regional analysis

According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition in the Central region was below or close to the average during the reporting period. Precipitation and temperature were below average during the monitoring period (RAIN -69%, TEMP -2.2°C). Radiation was above the fifteen-year average (RADPAR +4%). The BIOMSS index decreased by 42%. CALF departure was the highest (+91%) among all the regions and the maximum VCIx was 0.79.

In the rainfed Eastern hilly cereals zone, the NDVI profile was the most unfavorable during this reporting period. RAIN and TEMP were significantly lower than the fifteen-year average (-57% and -2.3°C), and RADPAR was above average (+4%). The combination of these factors resulted in a BIOMSS decrease by 35% as compared to the 15YA average. The maximum VCI index was 0.76, while the cropped area was reduced by 4% as compared to the five-year average. Conditions were unfavorable.

In the irrigated Aral Sea cotton zone, precipitation was 63% below the 15YA and average temperatures were below average as well (TEMP, -2.5°C). This impacted the crop potential production, resulting in a lower biomass (BIOMSS, -36%).  The maximum VCI index was 0.80 which is the highest among the three main crop regions, but the cropped arable land was only 5%. 

Figure 3.43 Uzbekistan’s crop condition, October 2020 - January 2021

a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Central region with sparse crops (left) Eastern hilly cereals region (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Aral Sea cotton region 

Table 3.75 Country’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  October 2020 – January 2021

Table 3.76 Country’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA,  October 2020 – January 2021