The reporting period covers the onset and establishment of the rainy season and the end of the irrigated cropping season. Land preparation and planting of rainfed cereal crops and legumes/pulses characterized this period. This period recorded a normal rainfall of 869 mm (15Yr Dep=0%), an average temperature of 23.5°C (-0.0%) and an average radiation of 1260 MJ/m² (-4%), resulting in a biomass production estimate of 718 gDM/m2 (-7%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 99% (+5%) and the VCIx was 0.96. These values indicate general favourable condition for crop establishments for the main cereals (maize, sorghum and millet) and pulses/legume (soybean, groundnuts, cowpeas, sunflower, beans, pumpkins etc).

Regional analysis

Regional analyses of the agro-ecological regions show that rainfall received was above normal for Western Semi-arid Plateau (+28%) and Luangwa-Zambezi Rift Valley (+16%). However, the Northern High Rainfall Zone (896 mm, -8%) and the Central, East and Southern Plateau (772 mm, -5%) received reduced rainfall. The temperature in the regions varied from 22.0°C to 24.8°C with negligible departure from the 15YA. The radiation in all agro-ecological zones was more than 1198 MJ/m² (-4%) and resulted in negative BIOMSS departures (< -4%) in all the regions. However, observed Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) increased in all the regions with CALF above 99% in all the regions. The maximum vegetation health index (VCIx) was the lowest in Northern High Rainfall (0.94) and Central, East and Southern Plateau (0.94) and the highest in Luangwa-Zambezi Valley (0.99). In general, the traditionally low rainfall regions experienced increased rainfall hence favorable conditions for crop productions.

The weather outlook indicates a higher-than-normal probability of above average cumulative rainfall, which portrays favourable yield prospects for the 2021 cereal crops. The potential risk is the infestation of fall army worms and outbreaks of African migratory locusts in southern and western provinces. 

 Figure 3.46 Zambia‘s crop condition, October 2020- January 2021

Figure A: Phenology map of main crops

Figure B: Time series rainfall profile

Figure C Time series temperature profile

Figure D: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure D: Maximum VCI

Table 3.81 Zambia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2020 – January 2021

Table 3.82 Zambia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2020 – January 2021