Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2021

Based on remote sensing-based production prediction in major agricultural producing countries in 2021 and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, it is predicted that the import of major grain crop varieties will increase slightly in 2021. The details are as follows:

Rice: Rice import will increase by 2.6% and its export will decrease by 1.3% in 2021. Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the efficiency of container turnover in the international shipping market has been greatly reduced, resulting in continuous shortage of containers and significant increase in freight rates. The gap of rice demand in major importing countries has increased, and China’s import of rice in 2021 is expected to increase slightly.

Wheat: China’s wheat import will decrease by 4.7% and its export will increase by 1.5% in 2021. Affected by the novel coronavirus disease and the export restrictions of main producers (such as Russia), the international wheat prices rose by 6.8% in the early 2021, but the import price after a 1% in-quota duty in China will still be lower than the domestic price, and its wheat import in 2021 is expected to decrease only slightly.

Maize: Maize import will increase by 1.6% and its export will decrease by 10.4% in 2021. After the conclusion of the phase-one economic and trade agreement between China and the United States, China’s maize import increased sharply in 2020. Due to this and other factors such the COVID-19 pandemic, it is expected that the global maize prices will remain high in 2021, but they will still be lower than the domestic level in China, and its maize import will remain high.

Soybean: Soybean import will decrease by 1.4% and its export will increase by 2.3% in 2021. As the novel coronavirus disease and other uncertain factors continue to develop, the global soybean market is still on the rise. With a strong import demand, China’s soybean import is expected to be basically flat in 2021.

Figure 4.14 Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2021 compared to those for 2021(%)