The production outlook for the current bulletin includes only the major producers in the Equatorial region, the Southern Hemisphere, and some isolated Northern Hemisphere countries where crop development is sufficiently advanced to ensure that estimates are reliable. Detailed production estimates for Brazilian States and Argentinian Provinces are listed in Annex B.

CropWatch production estimates differ from most other global estimates by the use of geophysical data in addition to statistical and other reference information such as detailed crop distribution maps. Recent sub-national statistics are used for the calibration of remote-sensing-based models. It is also stressed that the assessments and underlying data are crop-specific, i.e. based on different crop masks for each crop and that, for each crop listed in Table 5.1, both yield variation and cultivated area variation are taken into account when deriving the production estimates.

A specific section on environmental conditions that prevailed among the major importers and exporters between October 2020 and January 2021 is provided in Chapter 3.1.

Maize

Table 5.1 lists the results of the maize production prediction for seven countries in Africa, two countries in Southeast Asia and three countries in the America, including the 2nd and 3rd largest exporters - Brazil and Argentina. CropWatch predicts that maize production in Argentina and Brazil will drop by 11% and 6% from 2020, respectively, mainly constrained by the drier and warmer weather since the start of the summer season. Water deficits in the major maize producing provinces resulted in a reduction of the production. Drought conditions also occurred in Mexico since the start of the maize season in September 2020. This caused a drop in the area planted and hampered the development of maize, resulting in a 4% YoY drop in maize production. Of the 7 maize producing countries in Africa being monitored, only Zambia and South Africa showed increases in maize production, which were up by 7% and 13% respectively. Favorable rainfall benefited the sowing and early development of the maize in the two countries. Remote sensing-based monitoring revealed that both sown area and yield prospects are above the 5YA. In Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Northern Mozambique, and Nigeria lower production as compared to 2020 is expected. Desert Locusts in Ethiopia and Kenya also damaged maize plants and production to some extent and the maize productions dropped by 3% and 6%, respectively. Lower maize production is also forecast in Bangladesh mainly due to the reduced yield and sown area. While in Indonesia, maize production increases by 2% thanks to the 2% expansion of maize cultivation.

Rice

This current production prediction covers 13 rice-producing countries, including most of the key producing countries in Southeast Asia. Among the major rice producers, rice production is forecast to drop from 2020 levels in Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Myanmar by 6%, 4% and 5%. Both reduced yield and sown area resulted in the drop in production in the three countries. Rice production in the other Southeast Asian countries is expected to be at or slightly above that of 2020. Rice production of Mozambique and Angola decreased by 2% as affected by the low rainfall. Rice output in Argentina decreased by 3% while it increased by 1% in Brazil. The combined output from the 13 countries monitored is expected to drop by 0.3%, which will have a limited impact on the global rice market.

Wheat

The harvest of wheat in Southern Hemisphere including Argentina, Australia, Brazil and South Africa concluded by the end of 2020. This bulletin focuses on the wheat producers in tropical and sub-tropical regions including Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco, India, Pakistan, and Mexico. Among these countries, wheat production in Mexico is forecast to drop by 20% as affected by the lack of water. Large negative departures of rainfall in major wheat producing region in India, the Gangetic plains, resulted in an 8% drop of wheat planted area which leads to a 9% reduction of wheat production. However, considering that the region is almost fully irrigated, the magnitude of the rainfall deficit might narrow when the crop progresses. Morocco also suffered from water deficit, resulting in 5.4% drop of wheat production. Wheat production in Egypt remains the same as in 2020. A slight drop in Ethiopia and Pakistan, by 3% and 2% respectively, is forecast. Mexico and Morocco are among the world’s top wheat importers. The drop in domestic wheat production might result in increased wheat imports. The same applies to South Africa. The country used to be an exporter of the same importance as Australia, but over the past two decades, South-African farmers have reduced production to grow other, more profitable crops, to the extent that South Africa is now a net importer of about 1.5 million tonnes. The estimated production increase will allow the country to compensate, albeit in a limited way, for the reduced output of maize.

Soybean

Brazil and Argentina are among the top 3 exporters of the commodity. For both countries, decreased soybean production is forecast by CropWatch. In Argentina, drier weather dominated in the major soybean producing states including Cordoba, Santa Fe and Buenos Aires, resulting in an 11% drop of soybean yield and a 13% drop of soybean production. Similarly, drought in central Brazil also resulted in lower soybean yields as compared to 2020. The soybean production in Brazil is forecast at 94,552 thousand tons, down by 6% from 2020.

Table 5.1 Preliminary 2021 production estimates in thousands tonnes for selected countries in Equatorial region, and Southern Hemisphere as well as early crops in the Northern Hemisphere. Δ% stands for the change in % compared with the corresponding season in 2020.