Chapters 1 and 2 have focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 42 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns.

Overview 

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The “core countries”, including major producing and exporting countries, are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro- ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well.

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 166 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

1. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tons of the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans respectively. The United States and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops, whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops.

Maize: Maize exports are dominated by just 4 countries: USA, Brazil, Argentina and the Ukraine. Together, they supply three quarters of maize being traded internationally. Apart from Argentina and Brazil, the other relevant countries where the crops were in the field during this monitoring period were India, Paraguay and South Africa. Argentina experienced favorable conditions for maize production, as rainfall was 10-30% above the 15YA. CALF was high, and thus above-average production can be expected. Brazil, to the contrary, suffered from drought conditions. The Parana basin, an important producer of maize, was badly hit. The rainfall deficit was 63%, and total rainfall for the 4 months was only 348 mm. The Central Savanna or Cerrado, was equally as badly affected: rainfall was 343 mm, a reduction by 62% from the 15YA. The drought also caused problems with shipping, as water levels in many rivers are too low for the barges to navigate. Hence, maize supply from Brazil is expected to drop to below-average levels. Rainfall was much below average during the monitoring period in India as well. However, rainfall during the dry winter season is generally very low, and farmers rely on irrigation for maize production during the winter months. The main maize production season is during the monsoon (Kharif), and production during the winter months (Rabi) contributes  about 15% only to the total production. With temperatures and solar radiation being close to normal, average maize production can be expected for India during the monitoring period. South Africa is the largest maize exporter in Africa. All meteorological conditions were close to normal and average production can be expected. Maize planting started in April in North America and Europe. So far, weather conditions have been favorable, although temperatures were on the cooler side in Europe. In the USA, the conditions for planting and crop establishment have been favorable due to adequate soil moisture levels  Similarly, conditions were favorable for maize planting in the Ukraine as well.

Rice: Conditions for winter (Rabi) season rice production were generally favorable in India, the largest rice exporter. The region of irrigated dry season (Boro) rice production is limited to West Bengal, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Assam. However, Boro rice yields are much higher than those obtained in the Kharif (rainy) season. Another region with important dry season rice production is Southeast Asia. Thailand and Vietnam rank in the 2nd and the 3rd position of exporting countries. In these two countries, crop conditions were mixed. Rainfall increased to above-average levels in Thailand, after drought conditions in 2020. But low water levels in the dams and rivers at the beginning of the growing season posed challenges for irrigation. Similarly, in the south of Vietnam, crop conditions were rather unfavorable. Water levels in the Mekong River are recovering from record lows observed in 2020, and prospects for the summer rice production are favorable in South-East Asia. Brazil was affected by severe rainfall deficit. Conditions for the other important rice producing countries and regions, such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Southern Africa and Argentina were generally favorable. Hence, all in all, rice production is stable at a global level.

Wheat: Spring wheat sowing in Australia, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan started in April. Depending on the local conditions, the sowing period lasts until May or early June. Wheat tends to be grown in drier regions, where water is the limiting factor, except for the Indo-Gangetic Plain and the North-China Plain, where wheat is irrigated. In these two regions, conditions for wheat production have been favorable and high yields are expected for India and China. Precipitation in most of the rainfed wheat producing areas in the northern hemisphere was favorable, especially in Central- and Eastern Europe, the Maghreb, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Most countries in the Near East  and Central Asia were affected by a lack of winter rains. Especially Iran, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan suffered from severe rainfall deficits,  by more than 40%. Conditions in North America so far have been rather favorable. Rainfall is slightly below average, except for Mexico, where a severe drought has caused a shortage of irrigation water for the winter crops. A severe cold spell in the USA in February seems to have caused little damage to wheat. In South America, as well as in southern Africa, no wheat was in the fields. Sowing started in April. In Brazil, conditions for wheat planting in the Parana basin are unfavorable due to the severe drought. In the East African Highlands, conditions for wheat sowing in April were generally favorable.

Soybean: In the USA, Canada and the Ukraine, soybean sowing started at the end of this monitoring period, in late April. Soil moisture conditions are mostly favorable in those countries.  Conditions in May will determine the area planted and crop establishment. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay produce more than half of the world's soybeans traded on the international market. Conditions in Brazil for soybean production were unfavorable due to the severe drought conditions. Conditions for soybean production in Paraguay are more favorable, although the delayed planting of the first crop subsequently also delayed the sowing of the second crop. Argentina benefitted from above average rainfall, thus yield prospects are favorable for this country.

2. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes

(1) Rainfall (Figure 3.1)

Most of Brazil's regions that produce crops for export were affected by lower-than-average precipitation. The planting of the first crop was delayed due to a late start of the rainy season. This in turn also delayed the planting of the

 second crop in February and March. Apart from the coastal regions, most of Brazil suffered from a severe rainfall deficit, generally in the range of 30-60% below the 15YA. Argentina, on the other hand, benefitted from above-average rainfall. It exceeded the 15YA by 15% to 25%. While summer rains contribute to most of Mexico's rainfall, the lack of winter rains extended the drought period which had started in 2020. It is rated as one of the most widespread and intense droughts in recent history of this country. Another region that is plagued by prolonged drought is the West of the USA. Winter rains were far below average. California received only 230 mmm which is only 60% of the 15YA for this period. The rainfall deficit was less pronounced in the Northwest and Southwest, where rainfall reached around 80% of normal levels. In France and Italy, the rainfall deficits varied among the regions.  The north of France was less affected than the south. In Italy, the Po Valley (-23%) and the East-coast (-19.7%) were most hit. The rainfall deficits were severe for Iran (-47% to -68%), Iraq and Afghanistan (-27% to -69%). Eastern Europe and most of the wheat production regions of Russia benefitted from above average rainfall. Similarly, Central and Northern China benefitted from above average rainfall, whereas rainfall in  Southern China (-24%) and the Lower Yangtze region (-23%) were affected by a rainfall deficit. This in turn may delay the planting of the rice crop. Taiwan was also affected by a severe drought. Rainfall was down by -58%, as compared to the 15YA. Above average rainfall in Thailand (+25%) and in Australia helped overcome the drought conditions from 2020.

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of January 2021 to April 2021 total relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in percent.

(2) Temperature anomalies (Figure 3.2)

Temperatures stayed mostly within the normal ranges. The north-west of Argentina experienced slightly cooler than average temperatures, as well as the High Plains in the USA. In Central and Eastern Europe, the weather was also cooler than normal. The cooler temperatures in April delayed the planting and establishment of the summer crops.  Warmer-than-usual temperatures were observed for Eastern Canada, the north-east of Brazil and the Near East. Temperatures departed by more than 1.5°C from the 15YA in Iran. Similarly, the weather was also much warmer than usual in Southeast China, and most of southern, central and northern China experienced temperatures that were more than 0.5°C above the 15 YA.

Figure 3.2 National and subnational temperature anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) of January to April 2021 average relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in °C.

(3) RADPAR anomalies (Figure 3.3)

For most of Africa, solar radiation was below average. Similarly, radiation deficits were also observed for most of South America, except for some coastal regions of Brazil. Most of the western half of  North America received above average solar radiation, whereas a deficit was observed for the eastern half. Western Europe, especially France and the United Kingdom, experienced more sunshine than usual (>+3%). Solar radiation was below average for Eastern Europe, Russia and China. The impact on crop production is minimal, as winter conditions were limiting crop growth in these regions. Above average (>+3%) solar radiation was observed for the drought-stricken Near East.

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of January to April 2021  total relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in percent.

(4) Biomass accumulation potential BIOMSS (Figure 3.4)

The BIOMSS indicator is controlled by temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. In some regions, rainfall is more limiting, whereas in other ones, mainly the tropical ones, solar radiation tends to be the limiting factor. For high latitude regions, temperature may also become the most critical limiting factor. During the monitoring period, the BIOMSS indicators of most countries in Africa, Central Asia, and Europe were lower than the average level of the past 15 years by more than 5%. For several countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia such as Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Cambodia and Malaysia, the BIOMSS indicators were also lower by more than 5%. As far as the nine major agricultural producing countries are concerned, the BIOMSS distance has increased on average.  In western Russia, northern Kazakhstan and some neighboring regions in Russia, the northern and central states in India, the four provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan and Taiwan in China, the states of California, Arizona and Montana in the western United States, South Australia in Australia and most of the states of Brazil, the potential biomass was all significantly lower than average. Interestingly, apart from Morocco, Sri Lanka, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, the Philippines, Portugal, and a small number of countries in Central America and West Africa, whose potential biomass was more than 5% higher than usual, all the remaining regions with significantly higher potential biomass are also located in the 9 major agricultural producing countries, including the central and northern United States, the eastern provinces of Canada, the northern provinces of Argentina, the three southern states of India, the Western Australia and Queensland states of Australia, the three southern regions of Kazakhstan, and most of the provinces (municipalities) north of the Yangtze River in China.

Figure 3.4 National and subnational biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of January to April 2021 total relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in percent.