Wheat and barley are the two main cereal crops grown in  Australia. Their harvest ended in January this year. Therefore, there were no winter cereal crops in the field for most of this reporting period, which limited the relevance of NDVI-based indicators. 

Australia had relatively wet and cool weather in the current period, with above-average rainfall (RAIN, +14%), cooler temperatures (TEMP, -0.8°C) and below-average sunshine (RADPAR, -4%). This led to a below-average biomass accumulation potential (-7%). Sufficient rainfall has created favorable soil moisture conditions for the planting of wheat and barley in the coming months. CALF increased by 21% compared with the recent five-year average, while the maximum VCI was 0.72.

In the four main wheat production states, rainfall was above average in New South Wales (+39%), Victoria (+5%), and Western Australia (+13%), only South Australia encountered lower rainfall (-14%). All the other agro-climatic indicators (temperature, solar radiation and biomass) in the 4 states were below average.

The NDVI profile was generally close to the maximum levels observed over the past 5 years. The clustering map shows that only 22.9% of the cropland was below average in the last 4 months, mostly located in southern and western Australia.

Regional analysis

This analysis adopts five agro-ecological zones (AEZs) for Australia, namely the Arid and Semi-arid Zone (marked as 18 in NDVI clustering map), Southeastern Wheat Zone (19), Subhumid Subtropical Zone (20), Southwestern Wheat Zone (21), Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone (22). The Arid and Semi-arid Zone, in which hardly any crop production takes place, was not analyzed.

The conditions in the 4 AEZs could be divided into two groups.

Group 1 included Southeastern Wheat Area, Subhumid Subtropical Zone, and Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone. The 3 zones had similar agro-climatic indicator departures, which were abundant rainfall (+18%, +15%, +18%), cool temperature (-1.5°C, -0.9°C, -0.8°C), less sunshine (-5%, -3%, -5%), and below-average biomass (-8%, -5%, -13%). The CALF in these 3 zones were above average (+25%, +49%, +5%), with a maximum VCI of 0.65, 0.88 and 0.87 respectively.

Group 2 only included the Southwestern Wheat Zone. The rainfall increased by 47% to 154 mm, while the temperature was average. Both the sunshine  and biomass  were below average (both -4%). The CALF was slightly above average (+6%), and the VCIx was 0.67.

Overall, the agro-climatic indicators in the reporting period, especially rainfall, predict a favorable prospect for the coming wheat planting season in Australia. 

Figure 3.8 Australia crop condition, January 2021 - April 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops 

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  

 (c)    Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                      (e) NDVI profiles

(f)   Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semiarid zone (left) and Southeastern wheat area (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone (left) and Southwestern wheat area (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Wet temperate and subtropical zone   

Table 3.7 Australia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2021

Table 3.8 Australia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2021