This report covers the full cycle of dry winter season rice (Boro) and wheat crops, both of which are irrigated. The winter months were much drier than usual. Rainfall was 97% below average over the monitoring period between January and April. The temperature at 24°C was 0.7°C above the 15YA. The recorded RADPAR was higher than average by 3%. The severe drought resulted in a sharp decline in biomass (BIOMSS -26%). The drought also caused  a slight reduction in CALF to 95% and VCIx was only 0.81. The nationwide NDVI spatial pattern shows that 12.3% of the cultivated area, mainly distributed in the Sylhet basin, was above the 5YA, 41.8% was below and 16.5% was above the 5YA until March. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) map shows that the condition for the winter crops were unfavorable. The national NDVI development curve shows that crop conditions across the country were lower than the 5-year average during the whole monitoring period. Overall, crop conditions in the country were below average, although most rice, wheat and maize production is irrigated. 

Regional analysis

Bangladesh can be divided into four Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ): Coastal region, the Gangetic plain, the Hills, and the Sylhet basin.

In the Coastal region, both RAIN and BIOMSS were below average with significant decrease (-97% and -37%, respectively), TEMP was above average (+0.7 °C) and RADPAR increased by about 1%. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were below 5-year average. CALF was at 84% and VCIx at 0.76. They indicate unfavorable conditions in this region.

The Gangetic plains experienced a large drop in rainfall (-98%). TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+0.5°C and +4%, respectively). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were significantly lower than the 5-year average during the whole monitoring period except for March, and BIOMSS decreased by 98% due to severe drought. CALF (96%) and VCIx at 0.8 indicate below-average prospects.

In the Hills, rainfall was 98% below average. TEMP was above average (+0.5°C) and RADPAR increased by 1%. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were close to average at early stage of monitoring, and then below average . BIOMSS was below average (-47%) with scarce precipitation, CALF was 93% and VCIx was 0.78, indicating crop conditions was far below average.

In the Sylhet Basin, RAIN was far below average (-96%). TEMP was 0.9°C above average and RADPAR was 4% above. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were below average from January to April. The BIOMSS was 3% below average, with a low VCIx of 0.85 and CALF at 98%, indicating bad crop conditions.

Figure 3.9 Bangladesh’s crop condition, January-April 2021.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall Index (e) Temperature Index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Coastal Region (left) and Gangetic Region (right))

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Hill Region (left) and Sylhet Basin (right))

Table 3.9 Bangladesh’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2021

Table 3.10 Bangladesh’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2021