Winter wheat was the major crop in the field during this monitoring period.  The sowing of spring wheat started in March. Rainfall and temperature were above the 15YA (RAIN +5%, TEMP +1.2°C), whereas solar radiation  was below average (RADPAR -23%). This resulted in a potential biomass decrease (-11.2%). Agronomic indicators showed a satisfactory maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx 1.0) while the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased by about 2%. The NDVI profile shows very low values in January and February, presumably due to snow cover. Cooler than normal temperatures slowed the development of the crops in March and April. The spatial patterns of NDVI profiles show that around 88.2% of cropped areas eventually approached the 5-year average levels. Some areas in the southwest and middle west (Gomel and Minsk Oblasts) had a sharp drop in NDVI in April.  In south-eastern and central areas (Mogilev and Minsk Oblasts) VCIx was between 0.5-0.8, while the value was above 0.8 in the east. At the end of current monitoring period, winter wheat was in normal conditions.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses are provided for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ): Northern Belarus (028, Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (027, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev and Southern Belarus (029) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

Northern Belarus suffered deficit in radiation (-4%), while temperature  and rainfall were above average (TEMP +1.3°C, RAIN +3%). This condition resulted in a potential biomass decrease by 10%. Agronomic indicators showed that CALF remained at the 5YA level, while VCIx reached a high value (1.00). Starting from March, the regional NDVI development curve gradually approached the long-term average .

Central Belarus was also affected by low photosynthetically active radiation (25% lower), while temperature and rainfall were above the 15YA (TEMP +1.0°C, RAIN +6%). The VCIx had reached 0.99, and CALF had reached 100%. However, the potential biomass was expected to decrease (-12%). Similar to Northern Belarus, the NDVI growth curve started to improve to close to the average trend in March, but stayed slightly below the 5YA.

Radiation in Southern Belarus was significantly lower by 23%, while temperature and rainfall were higher by 1.0°C and 10%, respectively. Potential biomass was also expected to decrease by 12%. The CALF and the VCIx were 100% and 1.0 respectively. 

Figure 3.10 Belarus's crop condition, January – April 2021.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA            (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall time series 

(g) Temperature time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

Table 3.11 Belarus's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2021.