During this reporting period, the rice and main season maize in Central and Southern Brazil as well as soybean reached maturity. Their harvest was almost concluded by the end of April. The sowing of rice in the north and northeast and second maize in Central and Southern Brazil started in early January. They will reach maturity in June. The sowing of maize in the northeast and wheat in the south started in April. Generally, crop conditions in Brazil were below average compared to the previous five years.

Prolonged dry and hot weather dominated the monitoring period in Brazil since the start of the summer growing season in October 2020. Agro-climatic indicators present that rainfall dropped by 39% from the 15YA, while temperature was 0.8℃ higher.  RADPAR remained at average levels. Significanlyt below-average rainfall resulted in a 22% reduction of potential biomass compared with the 15YA. According to the national rainfall profiles, the 10-day accumulations of rainfall were below average throughout the four-month monitoring period, except for mid-January and mid-February when rainfall was close to the 15YA. When looking into sub-national levels, almost all states experienced drier and warmer weather with some exceptions in northwestern Brazil, including Roraima (-1.2 ℃ in TEMP and +44% in RAIN compared with the 15YA), Amazonas (-0.3 ℃ in TEMP and +3% in RAIN), and Rondonia (-0.2 ℃ in TEMP and +5% in RAIN). Twelve out of the 27 states in Brazil received less than half of the normal rainfall which resulted in water deficit for summer crops. Major agricultural producing states including Goias (-80% in RAIN compared with the 15YA), Sao Paulo (-74%), Mato Grosso Do Sul (-69%), Ceara (-61%) and Minas Gerais (-55%) are among those states suffering from the largest water deficits. The unfavorable dry and hot weather resulted in generally below average BIOMASS in most states.
The crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Brazil presents below-average values throughout the reporting period mainly because of prolonged dry weather in most of Brazil. According to the NDVI departure clustering map and profiles, most cropland showed below-average conditions, starting in mid-February. Average crop conditions were mostly located in northern and southern part of Parana Basin, Southern subtropical rangelands, and the east coast. Crops in Mato Gross, Mato Grosso Do Sul, Parana, Sao Paulo, and Santa Catarina presented below-average crop conditions as affected by the continuous low rainfall and severe drought. The NDVI anomaly map during early to mid-March also confirmed the below average crop conditions over those states. According to the bar graph drought proportions, the percentages of cropland suffering from moderate to severe drought showed an increasing trend from January - April 2021, indicating that the drought situations were becoming more severe. Although VCIx map showed overall high values across the country, the insufficient water supply after the flowering stage (the peak growing season) will negatively affect grain-filling and reduce crop yield.
All in all, crop conditions in Brazil were below average and CropWatch estimates unfavorable outputs for summer crops.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil. These include the Central Savanna, the east coast, Parana River, Amazon zone, Mato Grosso zone, Southern subtropical rangelands, mixed forest and farmland, and the Nordeste.
Seven zones received below-average rainfall while rainfall in Southern subtropical rangelands was 1% above the 15YA. Among the seven zones with low rainfall, six of them including Amazonas, Central Savanna, Northeastern mixed forest and farmland, Mato Grosso, Nordeste, and Parana Basin suffered persistent dry conditions since the last reporting period. The dry situation negatively impacted the crop development and resulted in below-average crop conditions. However, the main limiting factors varied from region to region. As indicated by the NDVI and rainfall profiles, crop conditions in Northeastern mixed forest and farmland, and Nordeste were all below average throughout the monitoring period mainly due to the prolonged dry weather and the resulting drought. Nordeste received the least rainfall among the AEZs with only 171 mm, down by 60% from the 15YA. Accordingly, the VCIx value in Nordeste zone also ranked as the lowest among AEZs.
Central Savanna, and Parana Basin are the two AEZs with largest temperature and rainfall anomalies, at 1.6℃ and 1.3℃ above-average in temperature and 62% and 63% below-average in rainfall, respectively. The hot weather further accelerated the loss of soil moisture and enhanced the severity of drought. As a result, the negative NDVI departures from the 5YA increase, especially in March. The BIOMSS departures in the two AEZs were also the largest two among all the AEZs, confirming the unfavorable climatic conditions for the crops.
Amazonas received the largest rainfall during the monitoring period with 1169 mm,  but it was still 13% below the 15YA. 
Although the coast zone received average rainfall in the previous monitoring period, the low rainfall especially in March to early April did not meet the high water demand in the grain-filling stage and resulted in unfavorable crop conditions. The insufficient rainfall is projected to have negative impacts on the yield of summer crops.
Rainfall in Mato Grosso varied from month to month during the monitoring period. The most significant drop in rainfall compared with the 15YA occurred in early January, late January and early February. The negative departures in those periods resulted in delayed sowing of second maize as well as the emergence and early development. Thus, crop conditions were significantly below average from mid-February to early April and recovered to close to average level in late April. In general, the impact of dry weather is limited to the first season maize but might reduce yield for the second season maize as well.
Normal agro-climatic conditions in Southern subtropical rangelands resulted in above-average crop conditions as indicated by the NDVI based crop development profiles. Rainfall was 1% above the 15YA with significantly above-average rainfall in late January to mid-February and late March, which provide favorable soil moisture for crop development. Crop conditions in the zone were above the 5YA and reached the 5-year maximum values in February during the peak growing stage. Summer crops outputs for the zone are expected to be above average level.
Although adverse conditions dominated most AEZs, CALF was at or above average level, indicating limited effects from unfavorable weather during the sowing period. VCIx values were mostly higher than 0.90 except for Nordeste zone. However, below average rainfall and high temperature could impede the grain-filling period.

Figure 3.11 Brazil crop condition, January - April 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Brazil

(c) Time series rainfall profile_Brazil

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure profiles

(e) Maximum VCI

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Northeastern mixed forest and farmland

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(L) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coast

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna

(n) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Amazonas

(o) NDVI anomaly compared with 5YA from 6 March to 21 March, 2021

(p) Proportion of drought categories from January - April 2021
Table 3.13 Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2021

Table 3.14 Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, January - April 2021