Winter wheat is the only crop that was grown in Canada during this monitoring period. It accounts for about 10% of Canadian wheat production. It is mainly grown in Ontario and Quebec, followed by Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba provinces. In general, below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures occurred in Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. According to CropWatch Agroclimatic indicators, the precipitation was below the recent 15-year average by 13% over the whole country, while temperatures were above average by 1.3℃. Radiation was below average by 2%. Above-average temperature resulted in a slight increase of potential biomass.  Overall, the winter wheat conditions were above the 5-year average.  Precipitiation in April was near normal, which would provide good conditions for the sowing and establishment  of the summer crops.

Regional analysis

The Prairies (area identified as 30 in the NDVI clustering map) and Saint Lawrence basin (26, covering Ontario and Quebec) are the major agricultural regions.

In the Prairies, precipitation was significantly below average (RAIN -13%), while the temperature were higher than the 15-year average (TEMP +1.0°C）accompanied by average radiation (RADPAR 0%). As a result, all of these indicators led to a slight increase of potential biomass (BIOMSS +3%). At the same time, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction fell to 3%, which was below the 5YA by -57%. VCIx was  0.67. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI fluctuated around the average level. 

In the Saint Lawrence basin, the main winter wheat production area in Canada, the precipitation and radiation were below the 15-year average (RAIN -16%; RADPAR -5%), and the temperatures  were significantly above average (TEMP +1.7℃). The above-average temperature had accelerated the green-up of winter wheat, which resulted in an increased CALF  and better-than-average crop conditions. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction increased significantly to 74%, which was above the 5YA by 48%.  The VCIx was 1.18, which indicates that the crop conditions were above the 5YA. Therefore, prospects are favorable for winter wheat in this region. 

Figure 3.12 Canada’s crop condition January-April 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA   (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall time series                                      (g) Temperature time series 

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Canadian Prairies region (left) and Saint Lawrence basin region (right))

Table 3.15. Canada’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  January-April 2021

Table 3.16. Canada agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, January-April 2021