In January, the harvest of last year's crops was completed. The locust plague had negatively affected the last season crops as shown in figure (k). In March and April, the planting of maize started. However, significant rainfall started in late April only. Rainfall had dropped by 16% from 15YA, while temperature and solar radiation were slightly below the 15YA. They had decreased by 0.4℃and 2%, respectively. Below-average rainfall resulted in a 20% reduction of potential biomass compared with the 15YA. The drought occurred mainly in the southern and Great Rift Valley regions: In the South- eastern mixed maize zone rainfall was 34% below average. Sufficient rainfall was observed for the northern and western regions. The increase in precipitation for the Western mixed maize zone was 12%. 

The crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Ethiopia presented below-average values in March and April mainly because of dry weather in the southern and Great Rift Valley regions of Ethiopia, due to the late sowing of maize. The NDVI departure clustering maps showed a negative departure in the south, whereas conditions in the north were above average. The average Maximum VCI for Ethiopia was 0.67. The Maximum VCI graph showed the same pattern as the NDVI departure clustering map. The cropped arable land fraction decreased by 21% compared to the 5YA. This was due to poor soil moisture conditions. In brief, land preparation and the sowing of maize had been negatively affected by below average rainfall, especially in the south and east of the country. 

Regional analysis 

The main rain-fed cereal producing areas include the Southeastern mixed-maize zone, Western mixed maize zone, and the Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone, except the Semi-arid pastoral areas.

In the Semi-arid pastoral areas, a typical livestock production zone, the rainfall was below average (- 9%). Temperature and solar radiation were close to the average (TEMP -0.2°C, RADPAR +1%), and the biomass dropped by 33%. At the same time, the NDVI values were below average in March and April. The VCIx was 0.43. Compared with the 5YA, the CALF had decreased by 35%. Overall, the prospects for livestock production were slightly unfavorable. 

A similar pattern was observed for the Southeastern Mendebo highlands zone, which is a major maize and teff producing area. During the reporting period, the rainfall in the region was below average (- 34%). Both the temperature and solar radiation were slightly lower than average (TEMP -0.4°C, RADPAR -3%). And the biomass was lower than the 15YA (-25%). The CALF decreased by 24%, and the VCIx was 0.59. The NDV-based crop condition development graph shows that NDVI was slightly below the 5YA. In general, the conditions for the sowing of maize in the Southeastern Mendebo highlands were unfavorable until mid-April. 

In South-eastern mixed maize zone, the average rainfall was 34% lower than the 15YA. The temperature and solar radiation were nearly constant. Because of lower precipitation, the biomass was below average (-34%). The NDVI-based crop condition development graph was below the 5-year average, the VCIx was 0.56, and the CALF had increased by 33%. The crop growing conditions in this area were not satisfactory.

In the Western mixed maize zone, maize is the most important crop grown during the Mether season. This region had received above-average rainfall (RAIN +12%). In combination with lower temperature (- 0.4°C) and solar radiation (RADPAR -5%), the estimate for biomass decreased by 3% from the 15YA. The VCIx was 0.80, and the CALF was kept unchanged. According to CropWatch indicators, crop conditions were favorable. 

The Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone is an important maize and teff producing area in Ethiopia. Precipitation (-5%), temperature (-0.5°C) and RADPAR (-2%) were slightly below average. The estimated biomass decreased by 16%, and the VCIx was 0.67. CALF had a 32% reduction. All in all, the prospects for maize crops were normal for this region.

Figure 3.15 Ethiopia’s crop condition, January - April 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                          

 (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                       

(g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi‐arid pastoral (left) South‐eastern Mendebo highlands (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South‐eastern mixed maize zone (left) and South‐eastern mixed maize zone (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central‐northern maize‐teff highlands

(k)Cropped arable land after locust plague

Table 3.21 Ethiopia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2021

Table 3.22. Ethiopia’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA,January - April 2021