This report covers the vegetative growth period of winter wheat, winter barley and rapeseed. According to the crop condition development graph, NDVI values were below average from January to April. Rainfall (RAIN, -2%) was slightly below average, temperatures was below average (TEMP, -0.7°C), and radiation was above average (RADPAR, +8%). The comprehensive impact of agroclimatic conditions resulted in decreased biomass (BIOMSS, -3%). The seasonal RAIN profile presents that rainfall from mid-January to mid-February was above average, and exceeded the 15-year maximum in mid-January. However, rainfall in April was far below the 15YA. The temperature was below or close to average for most parts of the period.

The national average VCIx was 0.79. CALF (98%) was unchanged compared to its five-year average. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 50.9% of arable land, mainly in the south of the United Kingdom, experienced average or slightly below-average crop conditions. (2) 19.4% of arable land experienced significantly below-average crop conditions in early January and subsequently recovered to average crop conditions. It covered mainly Southeast England (West Sussex, East Sussex, Kent). (3) 29.8% of arable land experienced fluctuating below-average crop conditions before February, then recovered to average crop conditions in late February, mainly in East of England (Norfolk, Suffolk) and scattered around Scotland.

Altogether, the conditions for wheat in the UK are assessed to be slightly below average, mainly due to a rainfall deficit in April.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national regions can be distinguished: 1) Central sparse crop region, 2) Northern barley region, and 3) Southern mixed wheat and barley region. The fractions of cropped arable land (CALF) in all subregions are average compared to the 5-year average.

The Central sparse crop region is one of the major agricultural regions in terms of crop production. Radiation was significantly above average (RADPAR +9%), rainfall was slightly above average (RAIN +3%), and temperature was below average (TEMP -0.5°C). Above-average radiation resulted in below-average biomass（BIOMSS, -3%). NDVI values were below average according to the region's crop condition development graph in this reporting period. The VCIx was at 0.82. Altogether, the conditions for wheat are expected to be below average. 

Northern barley region experienced below-average rain and temperature (RAIN -6%; TEMP, -0.7°C). Radiation was significantly above average (RADPAR, +8%). Biomass was below average (BIOMSS, -4%). NDVI was below or near average according to the crop condition graphs in this reporting period. The VCIx was 0.82. Altogether, the output of wheat is expected to be near average. 

Southern mixed wheat and barley zone experienced significantly above-average radiation (RADPAR, +9%) and average rainfall (RAIN -1%). However, below-average temperature (TEMP, -0.8°C) resulted in biomass estimates that were below average (BIOMSS, -3%). NDVI was below or near average according to the crop condition graph in this reporting period. The VCIx was 0.77, slightly less than in the other regions. Altogether, the output of wheat is expected to be slightly below average. 

Figure 3.17 United Kingdom’s crop condition, January - April 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Barley region (left) and Central sparse crop region (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern mixed wheat and Barley zone)

Table 3.25 United Kingdom's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2021

Table 3.26 United Kingdom's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, January - April 2021