During the monitoring period, the harvest of rainy season maize was completed in Java and Sumatra, while the harvest of main rice started in March.

At the national scale, radiation was above the 15YA (RADPAR +2%) while rainfall was below the 15YA (RAIN -11%), and temperature was near the 15YA, which led to a 2% decrease biomass production potential.

According to the national NDVI development graph, crop growth conditions were below the 5YA, but they improved slowly during the monitoring period and were close to the average in April. NDVI clusters and profiles show that 66.9% of the cropland was significantly below the 5YA in January- February, and began to recover to average levels in March. The crop condition for the 33.1% of arable land, distributed in the western and southern coastal areas, was close to average during the whole monitoring period.

Considering that the area of cropped arable land in the country was close to the 5YA (CALF 100%) and the VCIx value reached 0.95, the national production is anticipated to be average or slightly below. In conclusion, the reporting period has been a period of recovery for Indonesia. The yield of maize might be slightly below average, whereas main rice still depends on the weather in May and June.

Regional analysis

The analysis below focuses on four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (92), Java (90), the main agricultural region in the country, Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91) and West Papua (93), among which the first three are relevant for crop production. The numbers correspond to the labels on the VCIx and NDVI profile maps. Java is the country's main agricultural region.

The weather over Java was relatively wet compared to other regions. Rainfall was above the 15YA (RAIN +1%), whereas radiation was near the 15YA and temperature was below the 15YA (TEMP -0.2°C), which may have resulted in average biomass production potential (BIOMSS 0%). The NDVI development graph shows that crop conditions reached the 5YA in April only. Considering the favorable VCIx value of 0.93, and CALF near the 5YA, overall crop conditions in Java were slightly below average.

In Kalimantan and Sulawesi, rainfall was significantly below average (RAIN -16%) while temperature and radiation were both above the 15YA (TEMP +0.1°C, RADPAR +3%). Warmer temperatures and higher radiation promoted the growth of crops, which led to a slight decrease in biomass production potential (BIOMSS -3%). According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to the 5YA starting from the end of February. Overall, the crop yields were close to average.

In Sumatra, rainfall was significantly lower than the 15YA (RAIN -18%) while temperature and radiation were above average (TEMP +0.1°C, RADPAR +2%), which resulted in a below-average biomass production potential (BIOMSS -5%). According to NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below the 5YA except for the middle of April. Hence, yield might be slightly lower than average.

Figure 3.19. Indonesia’s crop condition, January – April 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI            (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA              (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Java (left) and Kalimantan-Sulawesi (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sumatra)

Table 3.29 Indonesia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2021

Table 3.30 Indonesia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January – April 2021