The current monitoring period covers most of the wheat and winter (Rabi) rice growing periods. Harvest for both crops was mostly completed by the end of April, except for maize and summer (Kharif) rice harvest in January. The graph of NDVI development shows that the crop conditions were close to or above the average in general, except in March, indicating that the crop conditions for Rabi rice and wheat were favorable at the national level.

The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that nationwide TEMP (+0.3°C) and RADPAR was close to average, whereas RAIN was significantly below the 15YA (-45%). The low rainfall resulted in a BIOMSS decrease by 28% compared with the 15YA. However, the overall VCIx was high, with a value of 0.87. As can be seen from the spatial distribution, only the Northeast recorded values below 0.80. Most of India had high VCIx values. These spatial patterns of VCIx were thus generally consistent with those of NDVI. The western and southern regions showed above-average crop conditions and slightly below-average conditions in the northern and eastern regions. The spatial distribution of NDVI profiles shows that after December, 35.5% of the areas showed above-average crop conditions in the western and southern regions. CALF increased by 14% compared to the 5YA.

With the exception of a few areas, the crop conditions in all parts of India were favorable. In the Indo-Gangetic plain, the most important wheat production region, NDVI fell to below average in March, during the critical grainfilling period of wheat, presumeably due to warmer than usual temperatures, which might have caused a slight drop in production. Although the CALF was above average, it was still lower compared with the same period last year. Therefore, the wheat production might be reduced significantly. In general, crop production for this season is estimated to be unfavorable at the national level due to the lack of irrigation and other field management measures caused by the COVID-19.

Regional analysis

India is divided into eight agro-ecological zones: the Deccan Plateau (94), the Eastern coastal region (95), the Gangetic plain (96), Assam and north-eastern regions (97), Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (98), the Western coastal region (99), the North-western dry region (100) and the Western Himalayan region (101).

The three agro-ecological zones of the Deccan Plateau, the Agriculture areas in Rajastan and Gujarat, and the North-western dry region show similar trends in agricultural indices. Compared to the same period of previous years, RAIN had decreased significantly, especially in the North-western dry region (minus over 60%). The TEMP was slightly above average but RADPAR was lower, the shortage in rainfall and lower radiation caused BIOMSS to be much lower than the 15-year average. 

Additionally, CALF showed the same trends. The highest increases had been observed in Deccan Plateau (+74%). The graph of NDVI development shows that the crop growth of these three agro-ecological regions during this monitoring period exceeded the 5-year average in most months. Generally, the crop production is expected to be above average.

The Gangetic plain, Assam and north-eastern regions and Western Himalayan region recorded similar trends of agricultural indices in this monitoring period. Compared to the same period of the previous years, RAIN had decreased by more than 20%, even by 70% for the Gangetic plain, Assam and north-eastern regions. TEMP was slightly above average (+0.5°C). The RADPAR was above average for both regions but did not compensate for the rainfall effect and caused a decrease in BIOMSS. Both regions recorded increases of CALF (+10%). VCIx was above 0.82. The graph of NDVI development shows that the crop growth for the three regions was below the 5-year average. The crop production is expected to be below average.

The Eastern coastal region recorded 87 mm of RAIN, which was 5% above average. TEMP was at 25.5°C (-0.3°C), and RADPAR was slightly above the 15YA at 1294 MJ/m² (+0.3%). BIOMSS was below the 15YA (-17%). CALF reached 81% which was an increase by 18% over the 5-year average, and VCIx was 0.94. The graph of NDVI development shows that the crop growth of this region during the monitoring period exceeded the 5-year average in most months. Generally, the crop production is expected to be above average.

The Western coastal region recorded 143 mm of RAIN, which was significantly above average (+80%). TEMP was at 26.3°C (+0.2°C) and RADPAR was at 1296 MJ/m² (-4%). BIOMSS was above the 15YA (+25%) due to abundant rainfall. CALF reached 72% which was significantly above average (+43%), and VCIx was 1.01. The graph of NDVI development shows that the crop growth of the region during the monitoring period exceeded the 5-year maximum in most months. The outlook of crop production in this region is favorable due to the abundant rainfall.

Figure 3.20 India's crop condition, January-April 2021

                                                (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI   

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

                (f)  Temperature profiles                                              (g) Rainfall profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Deccan Plateau (left) and Eastern Coastal Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Gangetic Plains (left) and Assam and north-eastern regions (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (left) and Western Coastal Region (right))

k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North-western dry region (left) and Western Himalayan Region (right))

Table 3.31. India’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2021

Table 3.32. India’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2021