This monitoring period covers the vegetative and early reproductive phases of winter wheat. Rice planting started in April.  Nationwide, the accumulated rainfall was significantly below average (RAIN -49%),  while temperature  and radiation were above average (TEMP +1.7°C, RADPAR +5%). The BIOMSS index was 27% below average. The national average of maximum VCI index was 0.67, and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) decreased by 22% as compared to the recent five-year average.

According to the national NDVI development graphs, crop conditions were above average throughout the monitoring period on about 12% of the cropland, mainly in the provinces of Khuzestan and Bushehr in the west and south-western regions, while crop conditions were below average throughout the monitoring period on about 14.3% of the cropland, mainly located in some parts of Ardebil, East Azarbaijan and Golestan in the north and north-western regions. 44.4% of the cropland showed close-to-average crop conditions. The remaining croplands experienced below-average crop conditions in late January and then recovered to average or above average levels (marked in Blue and dark green). They included the provinces of East Azarbaijan, West Azaibaijan, Zanjan, Gilan, Mazadaran, Semnan, Kordestan and Esfahan.

Overall, the conditions for the winter crops were not favorable due to  below average rainfall.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Iran, among which two are relevant for crop cultivation. The two regions are referred to as the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north (104), and the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains (103).

In the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region, NDVI profiles show a similar change of patterns as for the whole country. The accumulated rainfall was 130 mm (47% below average), while temperature  and radiation were above average (TEMP +1.7°C, RADPAR +6%). The influence of radiation and temperature exceeded that of rainfall, which resulted in an increase of BIOMSS by 21%. CALF declined by 26%. The average VCIx (0.69) indicates unfavourable crop conditions for winter wheat. 

Crop conditions in the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region were above the five-year average until late March. This region experienced a serious deficit of rainfall (RAIN, -68%), but received more sunshine (RADPAR, +4%). The temperature was above average (TEMP +1.6°C) . BIOMSS decreased by 39%, for the influence of rainfall deficit exceeded that of radiation and temperature. The CALF increased by 18% compared to the five-year average, and the national VCIx (0.71) was also quite low, indicating the unfavorable outlook for winter crops in this region.

Figure 3.21 Iran’s crop condition, January - April 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series temperature profile

(g) Time series rainfall profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi‐arid to sub‐tropical hills of the west and north region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region)

Table 3.33 Iran's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2021

Table 3.34 Iran's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, January - April 2021