This reporting period covers the main growing season of winter wheat which was sown between October and December. According to the crop condition development graph, NDVI values were close to the average of the past five years from January to early March, but below average from mid-March to mid-April due to the low precipitation from mid-February to late March. By late April, conditions had generally improved to average levels.

The total rainfall in this period was below average (RAIN -17%), the temperature was 0.6°C below the 15YA and RADPAR was 1% above the 15YA. The lower rainfall was mainly due to below-average rainfall from mid-February to late March, which delayed the growth of winter wheat, resulting in a 7% decrease of BIOMSS as compared to the 15YA. But CALF at the national level was 96%, close to the average. Except for a few areas in the north and central part of the country (Piemonte, Lombardia, Veneto and Lazio), the VCIx was above 0.80 for most of the cultivated land. 

The national average VCIx was 0.86. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that 26.3% of arable land experienced above-average crop conditions, mainly located in Piemonte, Lombardia, Veneto, Sardegna and Sicilia. 22.6% of arable land experienced slightly below-average crop conditions, scattered in Puglia, Marche, Abruzzi, Piemonte, Lombardia and Veneto. As shown in the NDVI cluster map, the crop condition trailed slightly below average during the whole monitoring period for 22.6% of the total cultivated cropland. Due to the rainfall deficit starting in mid-February, 73.7% of the NDVI pixels were below average in late March. Winter wheat developed more slowly than usual due to the colder temperatures. Overall, prospects for winter wheat are close to normal.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Italy. These four regions are East coast, Po Valley, Islands and Western Italy.

Eastern Italy (mainly in Puglia, Marche and Abruzzi) experienced below-average rainfall (RAIN -20%), temperature (TEMP -0.8°C) and slightly above-average solar radiation (RADPAR +1%). The shortage in precipitation resulted in a decreased potential production (BIOMSS -11%). VCIx was 0.93. The crop condition development graph indicates that NDVI was close to the average of the past five years from January to early March, below but close to the average from mid-March to mid-April and above average in late April. Close to average rainfall in March and April helped sustain crop growth and average production is expected.

Crop production in Po Valley (mainly in Piemonte, Lombardia and Veneto) was affected by low rainfall (RAIN -28%), below-average temperature (TEMP -0.7°C) and above-average solar radiation (RADPAR+3%). BIOMSS was below the 15YA by 9% and VCIx reached 0.82. The crop condition development graph indicates that the crop conditions were above average from January to early March, but slightly below average from mid-March to April and near average in late April. According to the agro-climatic indicators, near average output is expected.

The Islands recorded a below-average precipitation (RAIN -22%) with average temperature. RADPARwas slightly above average (+1%). BIOMSS decreased by 8% compared with the 15YA. VCIx was 0.93. NDVI was close to average throughout the monitoring period. The crop production in this region is expected to be close to average.

In Western Italy, rainfall was below average (RAIN -5%). RADPAR was near average and TEMP was below average (-0.7°C), which resulted in a biomass production potential decrease in this region (BIOMSS -3%). The NDVI reached average levels from January to mid-March, but it was below average from late March to April. VCIx reached 0.83. CropWatch expects a below-average production.

Figure 3.22 Italy's crop condition,  January 2021-April 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

(e) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (West Italy)

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP(North Italy)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (South Italy)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (East Italy)

Table 3.35 Italy's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January 2021-April 2021

Table 3.36 Italy's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA,  January 2021-April 2021