No crops were cultivated in most of the country during this monitoring period, except for some minor winter crops grown in the southern regions. Compared to the 15-year average, accumulated rainfall was above average (RAIN +13%), and temperature was close to average, while radiation was below average (RADPAR -4%). Furthermore, the dekadal precipitation was close to the fifteen year maximum in early February and early March. The temperatures warmed up to above 0°C in early April and stayed slightly below average in April. The agro-climatic conditions resulted in a decrease in estimated BIOMSS by 4%. According to the NDVI profiles, the national average NDVI values were still lower than 0.3 because of freezing conditions.

Overall, the improvement of soil moisture due to good rainfall conditions during this monitoring period will be favorable for the sowing of spring wheat in May.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Kazakhstan, among which three are relevant for crop cultivation: the Northern region (112), the Eastern plateau and southeastern region (111) and the South region (110).

In the Northern region, the accumulated precipitation  and temperature  were above average (RAIN +12%, TEMP +0.2°C), while RADPAR was below average (-6%) . The cloudy weather resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS by 6%.

Agro-climatic conditions in the Eastern plateau and southeastern region were normal. The average rainfall was above average (RAIN +14%). Temperature and RADPAR were close to average (RADPAR -1%).

The South region had the largest precipitation departure (RAIN +16%) among the 3 regions. The temperature and solar radiation were below average (TEMP -0.9°C, RADPAR -2%). The combination of agro-climatic indicators resulted in a increase of the BIOMSS index by 7%. The rainy and cloudy weather conditions in this region could have a negative impact on winter crops, which was confrimed by the unfavorable crop condition shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI .

Figure 3.23 Kazakhstan’s crop condition, January - April 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c). Maximum VCI

(d). Rainfall Index 

(e). Temperature Index   

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                               (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South zone)

Table 3.37 Kazakhstan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2021

Table 3.38 Kazakhstan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2021