Kenya experiences two rainy seasons: The long rains last from March to May and the short rains from October to December. Maize can be grown during the long and short rains, whereas wheat is grown during the long rains only. In the monitoring period from January to April 2021, the short rain maize had been harvested and the sowing of long rain maize began, while the planting of wheat will start in May only. 

At the national scale, precipitation was 362 mm, 20% below average. The weather was slightly cooler (TEMP -0.4°C) and RADPAR was slightly below the 15YA (-3%). As a result, the BIOMSS was 12% lower than average. According to the national rainfall profiles, the 10-day accumulations of rainfall presented conditions that were close to the 5YA in the first two months and clearly below the average in the following two months. When looking into sub-national level, almost all regions received less rainfall and the northern region had the largest percentage decrease in rainfall compared with the 15YA (RAIN -36%).

The NDVI development graph at the national level hovered along the 5YA trends in January and February but the NDVI values were below average in March and April. This is mainly due to the below- average rainfall in March according to the rainfall profiles. Therefore, conditions for the short rains maize were more favorable than for the long rains maize. The planting and emergence of long rains maize were hampered in March due to lack of rainfall. According to the NDVI clusters and the map of NDVI profiles, the national NDVI values were almost at average levels except for a small part of southern and central Kenya (16.3%). This was in agreement with the maximum VCI graph which shows that the yellow spots representing VCI between 0.5 and 0.8 were equally distributed in the central and southern regions. The national average VCI value reached 0.79 and the cropped arable land fraction increased by 1% as compared to the 5YA. In brief, the national crop condition is assessed as average, though the planting of long rains maize suffered from drier-than-normal conditions in March. 

Regional analysis 

In the Eastern coastal region, the rainfall was greatly below average (-27%), which resulted in a decreased estimate for biomass (-13%) while the temperatures and sunshine were moderately below average (-0.1℃and -3%, respectively). The NDVI values stayed below the 5YA from March. The CALF increased by 3% to 94%, while the maximum VCI was 0.69. Crop conditions were normal for both livestock and crops in the coastal areas, although the seeding of maize may have been delayed due to lack of rainfall. 

The Highland agriculture zone recorded 394 mm of rain, which was below the 15YA (-17%). In combination with lower temperatures (TEMP -0.3°C) and RADPAR (-3%), a lower estimate for biomass resulted (-11%). The NDVI profile was near average during the the first half of the monitoring period, but was below average in the second half. The maximum VCIx value was recorded at 0.78. In this area, cropped arable land fraction kept unchanged. In general, the crop conditions were normal. 

Agro-climatic indicators in the Northern region with sparse vegetation were similar to those in the Eastern coastal region. Precipitation was significantly below average at 210 mm, a decrease by 36%. Temperature was close to the 15YA, whereas RADPAR and BIOMSS were below average (-2% and -18% respectively). The NDVI profile also reflected that the adverse conditions in March and April had affected the sowing of maize. The maximum VCI was normal at 0.70 with a comparatively slight increase in CALF (+2%). Overall, the CropWatch indicators point to normal conditions. 

South-west of Kenya includes the districts Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru, and Embu which are major producers of long rain wheat and maize. The following indicator values were observed: RAIN 425 mm (- 26%); TEMP 19.8℃(-1.0°C); RADPAR 1290 MJ/m2 (-2%). BIOMSS was 810 gDM/m2 (-12%), CALF was unchanged and VCIx was 0.88. The crop conditions were normal.

Figure 3.25 Kenya's crop condition, January-April 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                          

 (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                 (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                

(g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, The Eastern coastal region (left), The Highland agriculture zone (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the Northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

Table 3.39. Kenya's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2021

Table 3.40. Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, January-April 2021