This report covers the production of irrigated wheat, typically sown in November and December, as well as of irrigated winter maize, sown roughly one month earlier. Maize and wheat were at the harvesting stage in March and April, respectively. Rice and soybean sowing began in April.

The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that TEMP and RADPAR were close to average and RAIN was below average (-29%), which was unfavorable to crop growth. Accordingly, BIOMSS decreased by 19% as comparted to the 15YA. However, VCIx was relatively low (0.64) and CALF decreased by 16%. According to the National Weather Service of Mexico, since January, the national rainfall has decreased by about one third compared with the average level of the same period in previous years, resulting in the worst drought in 30 years in some parts of Mexico. According to satellite data, the drought was more severe in the north than in the south. It was relatively mild in Yucatán, Chiapas and Campeche.  

At the national scale, the NDVI development graph trailed below average between January and April. But the conditions varied greatly across the country. According to its spatial pattern, the VCIx in the south was higher than in the north. Very high values (greater than 1.0) occurred mainly in the north of the Yucatán provinces, whereas extremely low values (less than 0.5) occurred in the drier north-east and center of the country. The VCIx in other regions of Mexico was moderate, with values between 0.5 and 1.0. As shown in the spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map, about 85.9% of the total cropped areas were below average during the entire monitoring period, mainly distributed in the coastal areas of Mexico. Out of all the agricultural production areas in Mexico, Tamaulipas had seen the worst negative departure in crop growth. The Yucatán provinces were the only region for which a positive departure was observed. 

Although wheat and maize production are irrigated during the winter months, crop conditions were unfavorable for Mexico due to a severe drought. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agro-ecological regions. They include the Arid and semi-arid region (128), Humid tropics with summer rainfall (129), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (130) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (131). Regional analyses of crop conditions provide more details for the production situation in Mexico.

The Arid and semi-arid region, located in northern and central Mexico, accounts for about half of planted areas in the country. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition in this region was below average during the reporting period. VCIx was relatively low with a value of 0.50 and CALF decreased by 44% compared with the 5YA. RAIN decreased by 45%, and TEMP and RADPAR were close to average. The decrease of RAIN and CALF resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS (-24%) and a low VCIx. The Arid and semi-arid region was also the one which was most affected by drought conditions. 

The region of Humid tropics with summer rainfall is located in southeastern Mexico. RAIN was significantly below average (-19%), TEMP was 0.3℃ warmer and RADPAR was near the 15YA, which resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS (-9%). As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were slightly above average in February and March. The drought in this area was mild and the VCIx (0.92) confirmed favorable crop conditions in this region.

The Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains is situated in central Mexico. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below average in this region. The agro-climatic condition showed that RAIN decreased by 49%, TEMP increased by 0.3°C, and RADPAR increased by 2% compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS also decreased by 27% and CALF was 41%. The VCIx in these region was low, only 0.60. 

The region called Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains is located in southern Mexico. During the monitoring period, crop conditions were below average since January, as shown by the NDVI time profiles. Agro-climatic conditions showed that RAIN was slightly below average (-23%) while TEMP and RADPAR were near average (+0.1°C and 1% respectively). The VCIx in these areas was 0.73 and BIOMSS was below average by 18%.

Figure 3.5 Mexico’s crop condition, January - April 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                              (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right))

Table 3.1 Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2021

Table 3.2 Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2021