This monitoring period covers the main growth periods and the harvest of maize, rice (second) and wheat. Compared to the 15YA, RAIN and RADPAR  decreased (-30% and -3% respectively), while TEMP was average (+0.3°C). As a result, potential cumulative biomass (BIOMSS) was 11% below average because of insufficient precipitation. CALF decreased compared with the 5YA (-23%). NDVI also showed a slight decrease compared with the 5-year average during the entire period except for April, when it started to improve to average levels, aided by close-to-normal rains that month. According to VCIx, the southern region was doing better than the northern one. As to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, crop conditions for about 30.5% were above average and over half (56.0%) of the area was below the average during the whole monitoring period. The overall crop conditions in this monitoring period were unsatisfactory for the Central Plains and the Hills region, but normal in the Delta and Southern Coast region.

Regional analysis

The Central Plain had a marked rainfall deficit (RAIN, -33%), with RADPAR decreased by 3% and TEMP increased by 0.6°C compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS was 16% lower than the 15YA, the sharpest drop among the three sub-national regions. CALF was 56%. It had  decreased by 23% compared with the 5YA and the VCIx was 0.65. According to the NDVI profile, NDVI was below the 5YA during the whole monitoring. Crop conditions in this region were unsatisfactory.

The Hills region had below-average RAIN (102 mm, -33%). RADPAR was 1% below the 15YA while TEMP increased by 0.2°C. BIOMSS was 16% below the 15YA caused by the insufficient precipitation. CALF showed that 90% of the crop land was utilized. This was 2% below the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.82. The NDVI values were close to the 5YA during the whole period. Crop conditions are assessed as below the average.

The Delta and Southern Coast region had the highest RAIN (172 mm) compared with the other two sub-national regions, but it was still 25% below the 15YA. TEMP increased by 0.1°C and RADPAR decreased by 4%. BIOMSS was 11% above the 15YA. CALF showed that 89% of the crop land was utilized, a 2% increase above the 5YA. The NDVI values were above the 5YA during the whole period. The VCIx was 0.94. Crop conditions in this region were above average.

Figure3.30 Myanmar's crop condition, January – April 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Rainfall Profile

(d) Temperature Profile

(e)  Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) in Myanmar

(f)  Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Central Plain region

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Hills region

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Delta and Southern Coast region

Table3.49 Myanmar's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2021

Table3.50 Myanmar's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January– April 2021