The period from January to April 2021 corresponds to the main production season of rice and maize in the central and northern provinces. In the south, maize and rice harvest had started already in February, whereas in the north, it will be completed in May. According to CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, Mozambique recorded near-average rainfall, temperatures and solar radiation when compared to the 15YA (RAIN -3%; TEMP -0.1°C; RADPAR, +1%). Together, these conditions led to a decrease in the total potential biomass production (BIOMSS -1%).

According to the development graph based on NDVI, crop conditions at the country level were below the 5YA from the beginning of the monitoring period until mid-March when crop conditions began to improve. Even with a considerable amount of rainfall, only 31% (mostly the provinces of Gaza and Northern Sofala) of the cropped area presented favourable crop conditions, as shown by the NDVI profiles. Subsequently, the remaining regions improved to close to, but still below average levels in early April. A major section of the country recorded low VCIx values (less than 0.8). However, better VCIx values (close to 1) were observed in some regions of Inhambane, Gaza and Sofala provinces.  Even though the recorded CALF was near the average and a better overall VCIx (0.93) was observed, the combined effects of the tropical cyclones and storms (i.e., Eloise, Chalane and Guambe) that hit the country’s coastal regions of Sofala, Inhambane and Gaza provinces contributed to the poor crop conditions recorded during the monitoring period. Overall, crop conditions were average in the south and centre of the country, but below average in the north.

Regional analysis

CropWatch subdivided Mozambique into five agroecological zones including the Buzi Basin, Northern High-altitude Areas, Low Zambezi River Basin, Northern Coast, and Southern Region. This subdivision was based on the cropping system, topography and climate.

The Buzi basin experienced above-average rainfall (RAIN +11%) and radiation (RADPAR +1%) and below-average temperatures (TEMP -0.6°C). In this region, the effects of the tropical storm Chalane and tropical cyclone Eloise contributed to the reduction in the total potential biomass production (BIOMSS -5%) compared with the 15YA.  In this region, the VCIx was 0.91 and CALF was near average. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were near average at the beginning of the monitoring period and subsequently declined to levels below the 5YA.

In the Northern high-altitude areas, the recorded rainfall was below the 15YA (RAIN -5%), the temperature was near average and the radiation increased by about 3%. Influenced mostly by the decrease in rainfall, BIOMSS close to average. In this region, CALF was near average and a maximum VCIx of 0.95 was observed. The crop condition development graph indicates that the crop conditions were below the 5YA during the entire monitoring period. However, the crop conditions started to improve in early March, resulting in normal prospects.

With both rainfall and radiation increasing (RAIN +9% and RADPAR +2%) and slightly below-average temperatures (TEMP -0.3ºC), the resulting biomass estimate was 1% above the 15YA in the Lower Zambezi River basin. In this region, CALF was also near the average and the recorded maximum VCIx was 0.96. Furthermore, the crop condition development graph indicates favourable crop conditions for almost the entire monitoring period.

The Northern coast region recorded below-average precipitation (RAIN -18%). The temperatures increased by about 0.4°C and the radiation was near average. The agroclimatic indicators show that CALF was near average and the total VCIx was 0.92. In this region, crop conditions were below the 5YA from the beginning of the monitoring period till late April, when the crop conditions improved to be near average, showing a slight recovery.

In the Southern region, rainfall increased by 14% while the temperature decreased by about 0.2°C.  The radiation was near average. Even with favourable rainfall conditions, the total biomass production recorded a decrease of 2%. With CALF increasing by about 1%, this region recorded a VCIx of 0.95. In contrast to the other agroecological regions, the South region showed favourable crop conditions throughout the monitoring period.  

Figure 3.32. Mozambique's crop condition, January-April 2021

（a）Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                    (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA      (e) NDVI profiles

(f) National time-series rainfall profiles        (g) National time-series temperature profiles

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Buzi basin (left), and Northern high-altitude areas (right)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Lower Zambezi River basin (left), and Northern coast region (right)

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Southern region

Table 3.53 Mozambique’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2021

3.54 Mozambique’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January – April 2021