This reporting period falls between the end of harvest of irrigated cereals and the onset of the rainy season. High levels of conflict in Northeast Nigeria limited the dry season harvest and agricultural activities.

The country received 64 mm of rainfall (-51%), average temperature was 26.9ºC (-0.1ºC) and the recorded radiation was 1342 MJ/m² (+1%). The observed maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.87. Due to a decline in precipitation, the biomass production potential was reduced to 329 gDM/m2 (-36%). The drier-than-normal conditions had limited impact on crop production, as no crops were grown during this monitoring period. 

Regional Analysis

The analysis focused on four major agroecological zones in the country, i.e., Sudan-Sahel savanna region across the northern region, Guinea and Derived savanna within the central region and Humid forest situated towards the southern region.

The Sudan-Sahel savanna zone recorded no rainfall (0 mm) and an overall temperature of 26.5^oC (-0.1^oC). The radiation was near average (-1%) at 1376 MJ/m². CALF stood at 3% (+72%).

The Guinea savanna region is predominantly occupying the central region of the country. Observed rainfall was 93% below the 15YA. The temperature was 26.3^oC (-0.2 ^oC) and the radiation slightly increased to 1384MJ/m². During this period, only irrigated crops were grown in this region.  The CALF was 7%, which was a decrease by 33% from 15YA. Maximum VCI was 0.77.

The Derived savanna region is a transition zone between the Guinea savanna and Humid forest zones. Rainfall was 29 mm (-75%), temperature 27.6 ^oC (-0.1 ^oC) and radiation 1322 MJ/m² (+1%). The defict of rainfall during this period contributed to a reduction in estimated biomass by 40% as compared to the 15YA. Likewise, the arable crop land was reduced by 19% and the maximum VCI stood at 0.71. NDVI was below average in February but gradually picked up with the onset of rains at the beginning of April.

In the Humid forest zone precipitation is quite high as compared to other regions. The precipitation was 285 mm (-37%) and average temperature was 27.5 ^oC (+0.3^oC), while the radiation was reduced by 1% (1271 MJ/m²) from 15YA. Biomass production was reduced by 16% (809 gDM/m²).  CALF was 95% and maximum VCI was 0.87. NDVI started to gradually increase in the month of April.

Figure.1 Phenology of major crops

Figure.2 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure.3 Maximum VCI

Figure.4 Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5YA and NDVI profile

Figure.5 Rainfall profiles

Figure.6 Temperature profiles

Figure.7 Crop condition development based on NDVI for Derived savanna

Figure.8 Crop condition development based on NDVI for Guinea savanna

Figure.9 Crop condition development based on NDVI for Humid forest

Figure.10 Crop condition development based on NDVI for Sudan-Sahel savanna

Table 3.xx. Nigeria's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2021

Table 3.xx. Nigeria's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, January - April 2021