This reporting period includes most of the winter wheat cycle from the vegetative stage to harvest. It also covers the field preparation and sowing of maize. Crop condition were generally unfavorable from January to April compared to the average of the previous fifteen years. 

Rainfall was below average. The drought prone areas of Sindh and Balochistan received almost no rainfall from January to early March. Compared the 15YA, RAIN was 22% below, while air temperature(TEMP) and photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR) were above average (+0.6°C and +2% respectively). The combination of all the agro-climatic indicators resulted in a below-average BIOMSS (-26%). At the national level, the dekad rainfall was continuously below average from the middle of January to early March. Subsequently, it was close to or above average. At the subnational level, three regions all experienced warmer and drier weather including North highlands (TEMP +0.3°C; RAIN -16%), Northern Punjab (TEMP +0.6°C; RAIN -34%) and theLower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind (TEMP +1.2°C; RAIN -40%). Prolonged drought and hot weather resulted in below-average estimates of BIOMSS.  In the Northern highlands and Northern Punjab the decrease were both of 11% and in the Lower Indus river basin of south Punjab and Sindh the decrease was 26%. 

The crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Pakistan presented below-average conditions over this reporting period mainly due to drier and warmer weather. The spatial NDVI patterns and profiles showed that 35.1% of the cropped areas were below average, mainly distributed in North highlands, Balochistan and Sindh in late January. The maximum VCI was 0.72. The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) decreased by 1%. Since most of the wheat is irrigated, the drier-than-usual weather had a limited impact on wheat production.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Northern highlands, Northern Punjab and the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sindh.

In the Northern highlands RAIN was 16% below average. RADPAR and TEMP were both above average (+2% and +0.3°C respectively). The region revealed the lowest CALF of 47% among the three AEZs. The NDVI development graph shows below average crop conditions from February to April, especially in the north. 

Northern Punjab is the main agricultural region in Pakistan. It recorded low RAIN (34% below average). TEMP and RADPAR were above average by 0.6°C and 1% respectively. The resulting BIOMSS reduced the recent fifteen-year average by 11%.The region had a CALF of 86%, which was below the 5YA by 1%. NDVI trended below average.  

In the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sindh, RAIN was below average by 40%, while TEMP and RADPAR were above average (by 1.2°C and 1% respectively).The estimated BIOMSS departure was -26%. Crop condition based on NDVI were always below average, indicating unfavorable conditions. The CALF of 65% was close to the average. Overall, prospects were below average.

Figure 3.23 Pakistan crop condition, January- April 2021

a) Phenology of major crops

b) NDVI profile                                                      c) Maximum VCI

d)  Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5 YA                       e) NDVI profile

f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind)

g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highlands (left) Northern Punjab (right))

Table 3.57 Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, January - April 2021

Table 3.58 Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, January - April 2021