Crop conditions in Turkey were below average during the whole monitoring period. Maize and rice were planted at the end of the reporting period, while winter wheat was still at the late vegetative stage. Rainfall  was below average (RAIN, -7%), while sunshine  and temperature  were close to average (RADPAR +0%, TEMP +0.2°C), which led to a below-average potential biomass (BIOMSS, -3%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased by 7% and the maximum VCI was 0.79. 

According to the spatial NDVI patterns map, crop conditions were above average mainly in and around the provinces of Edirne, Tekirdag, Kirklareli, Balikesir, Manisa, Izmir, and Aydin in western and northwestern Turkey and  in some areas including the provinces of Hatay, Sanliurfa and Mardin in southeastern Turkey. The situation of consistently below-average NDVI prevailed in the eastern, central and west of central parts of Turkey, mainly in the provinces of Bolu, Bilecik, Kutahya, Eskisehir, Afyonkarahisar, Sivas, Bingol, Mus, Erzurum and Bitlis. Overall, the production of winter crops can be expected to be close to average if rainfall remains normal in the coming months.

Regional analysis

The regional analysis covers four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): the Black Sea area, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone.

In the Black Sea zone, the NDVI was below average during the reporting period, except for early January. Rainfall was above average (RAIN +3%) and temperature was near average while sunshine was below average (RADPAR -4%). The biomass was below average (BIOMSS -2%). The VCIx reached 0.81 and CALF was down by 8%.  Below-average cereal production is forecasted for this region.

Central Anatolia is the main grain production region of Turkey. It had slightly below average NDVI throughout the whole monitoring period. Both rainfall and sunshine were below average (RAIN -10%, RADPAR -1%). Temperature stayed near average (TEMP, +0.0%) . The potential biomass production decreased by 4%. CALF fell 18% below average, which was the steepest fall among the four AEZs in Turkey, and the VCIx was 0.75. The condition of crops is assessed as average to below average.

In the Eastern Anatolian plateau, the NDVI was above and close to average in early and mid-January, and near average after January. This zone also suffered from lower rainfall (RAIN -12%). Temperatures and sunshine were above average (TEMP +1.1℃, RADPAR +4%), biomass was above average (BIOMSS +1%). CALF decreased by 7% and the VCIx was 0.84. All indicators agree in describing the conditions as fair for this AEZ.

As shown by the NDVI profile in the Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone, the NDVI was average or slightly below during the reporting period. The rainfall was below average (RAIN -6%), temperature and radiation were close to average (TEMP, +0.2°C, RADPAR +0%). The CALF was above average (+1%), which was the only positive deviation from the mean among the four AEZs of Turkey. Also, the VCIx was the high at 0.82. Crop production prospects are estimated to be quite favorable.

Figure 3.39 Turkey’s crop condition, January-April 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                             (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile                                   (g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region (left) and Central Anatolia region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region (left) and Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region (right))

Table 3.69 Turkey’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2021

Table 3.70 Turkey’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2021