The monitoring period from January to April covers the main growth period of winter wheat and the planting of maize in Uzbekistan. The national average VCIx was 0.59, and the cropped arable land fraction decreased by 44%. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, RAIN was below average (-20%), while TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+0.3°C and +4%). The rainfall was generally below average except in March. The combination of factors resulted in an increased BIOMSS (-9%) compared to the fifteen-year average. As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below the five-year average during the monitoring period from January to April. NDVI cluster graphs and profiles show that 29% of the agriculture areas had above-average conditions from February to late March. They are covering mainly parts of the Qunghirot, Altynkul, Takhtakupyr, Chimbay, Beruni, Turtkul provinces and some small parts of Denau, Kitab and Termez provinces. Another 8% of the agriculture areas had above-average conditions from March to April in most of the eastern and southern provinces. It was normal or subnormal  in other regions. Overall, crop conditions were generally unfavorable due lack of rainfall in April.

Regional analysis

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, NDVI was below the five-year average from January to late April. The RAIN was below average (-21%), while RADPAR and TEMP were above the fifteen-year average (+5% and +0.3°C). The combination of these factors resulted in an decreased BIOMSS (-11%). The maximum VCI index was 0.61 and Cropped Arable Land Fraction decreased by 44% compared to the five-year average. Overall crop prospects are unfavorable.

In the Aral Sea cotton zone, accumulated rainfall and radiation were below average during the monitoring period (RAIN -14% and RADPAR -2%), and the temperature was slightly below average (TEMP -0.1°C). The BIOMSS index increased by 3% compared to the fifteen-year average. No croplands are cultivated during this monitoring period.

 Figure 3.43. Uzbekistan crop condition, January – April 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

   (b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                              (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                               (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                           (g) Temperature profiles

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Aral Sea cotton region

Table 3.75 Uzbekistan's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, January – April 2021

Table 3.76 Uzbekistan's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 5YA, January – April 2021