This report covers the main part of the growing season for rainfed crops in Zambia. The main cereal crops are maize, sorghum and millet which were planted between late October and early January depending on the agroecological region. Rainfall during the reporting period was well distributed, resulting in good moisture conditions for crop growth. The harvest of the main cereal crops started in April and preliminary forecasts indicate an annual maize production of 3.5 million metric tonnes. Based on the CropWatch indicators at the national scale there was a slight decrease (-6.6%) in rainfall (906 mm), as well as a reduction in potential radiation (-3.8%) and biomass production (-8%). The NDVI was also below average in January and February. However, there was recovery by the time of the peak of the growing season, when it reached the 15-year average level. The area under cultivation was 100% (CALF=>99.9%) an increase of 1%. Average VCIx was predominantly more than 0.9 ranging from 0.8 to 1.0, with some exceptions in parts of central and southern Zambia experiencing maximum VCI between 0.5 and 0.8. Crop conditions in Zambia were below average. 

Regional analysis

The analysis of agroecological regions showed a reduction in rainfall received in the Western-semi arid plain (-28.4%), Northern High rainfall zone (-9.7%), and Central - Eastern and Southern Plain (-2.1%), while the Luangwa-Zambezi valley received an above-average rainfall (+3.6%). Temperature and radiation were below average (-0.4ºC and -4% respectively). In combination with reduced rainfall, the estimated biomass was15%, 7%, 6%, 9% below average. Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was almost close to 100%. The negative departures in biomass and NDVI indicate a slight reduction of potential agricultural productivity in some regions of the country. Infestations of African Migratory Locust (AML) between January and March 2021 in southern and western parts affected nearly 30 percent of the national maize output.

Figure A: Phenology of major crops in Zambia

Figure B: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure C: Time series rainfall pofile

Figure D: Time series temperature pofile

Figure E: Maximum VCI

Figure F Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Table 3.83 Zambia's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April

Table 3.84 Zanbia's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January - April 202