Multi-source high resolution satellite images, agro-climatic and agronomic indicators as well as field surveys from winter crop producing provinces were integrated into the forecast of winter crop production.

(1)    Winter crop production

The overall favorable weather conditions benefitted winter crops.  During the overwintering to regreening and flowering stages of winter wheat, RAIN and TEMP were above average (+25% and +0.8°C). Benefitting from good agro-climatic conditions and proper crop management, winter crop  conditions are overall favorable. CropWatch puts the total output of winter crops at 132.46 million tons, up by 0.7% or 0.96 million tons from 2020 (Table 4.2).

The planted area of winter crops in the Huanghuaihai Plain has expanded compared with 2020, especially in Shandong, Hebei, and Anhui with an increase of 2.8%, 1.7%, and 0.3%, respectively. The production also increased, which prompted the total output of winter crops in these provinces to increase by 1.13 million tons (+4.4%), 0.317 million tons (2.6%), and 0.106 million tons (0.9%), respectively. As the largest winter crop producing province, Henan has a slight decline in winter crop planted area and yield, resulting in a decrease of winter crop production by 0.257 million tons. Affected by the drier weather during the sowing period in the autumn of 2020, the winter crop planted area on the Loess region including Shanxi, Shaanxi and Gansu has decreased by 2.3%, 3.5% and 4.3%, respectively.  During the re-greening to jointing stages of winter wheat, Shaanxi and Gansu received significantly above average precipitation, which provided favorable soil moisture conditions for the winter crops. The increase in yield partly compensates for the  reduction in planted area, resulting in a reduction of winter wheat production by only 2.4% in these provinces. In contrast, RAIN has continued to be low since the wintering period in Shanxi Province, the decline in both yield and planted area has led to a 3.5% reduction in winter crop production, which is the largest reduction of production percentage wise among all provinces.   The area of winter crop planted in the three provinces of Hubei, Chongqing and Sichuan has also been reduced. However, the increase in yield in those three provinces compensated for the reduction in area, and only minor production changes in those provinces resulted.

Table 4.2 China, 2021 winter crop production (thousand tons) and percentage difference with 2020, by province

(2)    Winter wheat output

The total winter wheat output in 2021 is expected to be 122.26 million tons, an increase of 1.11 million tons compared to 2020, or up by 0.9%. The total planted area of winter wheat is estimated at 23.95 million hectares, with an increase of 0.5%, and the average yield of winter wheat is predicted at 5104 kg/ha, up by 0.4% from 2020 (Table 4.3).

As far as the main producing provinces are concerned, both the planted area and yield of winter wheat in Hebei, Anhui and Shandong increased from 2020, and the output of winter wheat increased by 0.309 million tons,  0.123 milliontons and 1.12 million tons respectively. Water deficit affected Shanxi's winter wheat, and both the yield and planted area decreased, resulting in a 3.5% decrease in winter wheat output. The winter wheat planted area in Jiangsu and Henan decreased slightly.  The two provinces were affected by strong winds and heavy rains in May. The adverse weather resulted in wheat lodging in parts of Jiangsu and Henan, leading to a slight decrease of wheat yield by 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively. As a result, winter wheat output dropped by 0.163 million tons and  0.269 million tons in Jiangsu and Henan, respectively. The area of winter wheat in Hubei, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Gansu has decreased, while the average winter wheat yield has increased. The departure of winter wheat production from 2020 is less than 0.1 million tons in these provinces.

Table 4.3 China, 2021 winter wheat area, yield, and production and percentage difference with 2020, by province

(3)    Early rice planted area

For 2021, the total area of early rice planted in the eight major producing provinces of China is estimated at 5.029 million hectares. Compared with the expanded early rice area in 2020, when the government had encouraged early rice cultivation, the area in 2021 was reduced by 0.715 million hectares, but it is still larger than in 2019. With the exception of the early rice planted area in Anhui Province, which increased from 2020, all other seven major early rice producing provinces had a decrease in planted area compared to 2020. Hunan and Jiangxi are the two largest early rice producing provinces in the country. The early rice area is estimated at 1.5223 million hectares for Hunan (-1.4%) and 1.1447 million hectares for Jiangxi (-1.9%). Early rice in Hubei Province  shrank by 1.8% from 2020, resulting in 0.1507 million hectares only. The main reason is that farmers switched to shrimp-rice farming or crab-rice farming, because they are more profitable. These new farming practices even caused a reduction in winter wheat cultivation in this province.