This section analyzes the import and export situation of  maize, rice, wheat and soybean in the first quarter of 2021 in China.

（1） Rice

In the first quarter, China's rice import was 1.454 million tons, up 158.3% over the previous year. The main import source countries were Pakistan, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand and India, accounting for 29.4%, 26.4%, 15.3%, 10.3% and 10.2% of the total import respectively, with an import value of US$310 million. The export of rice was 657.2 kilotons, an increase of 26% over the previous year, and the export value was US$282 million.

（2） Wheat

In the first quarter, China imported 2.92 million tons of wheat and wheat products, an increase of 131.2% over the previous year, and the import value was US$728 million.

（3） Maize

In the first quarter, China's maize imports were 6.7266 million tons, an increase of 437.8% over the previous year. The main source countries of imports were the United States, Ukraine and Russia, accounting for 51.8%, 47.5% and 0.5% of the total imports respectively, and the import value was US$1.658 billion.

（4） Soybean

In the first quarter, China imported 21.1739 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 19% over the previous year. The main source countries of imports were the United States, Brazil and Argentina, accounting for 90.3%, 6.4% and 0.5% of the total imports respectively, and the import value was US$10.199 billion. The export of soybean was 18.6 kilotons, down 32.1% from the previous year.

On the basis of the remote sensing-based predictions of production  in major agricultural producing countries in 2021 and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, which is derived from the standard GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project), it is estimated that the import of major grain crop varieties will increase in 2021. The details are as follows:

Rice imports will increase by 23.6% and exports will decrease by 1.4% in 2021. Under the influence of COVID 19 pandemic, the import demand will expand with a slight increase in demand for different quality and brand rice. The import demand will expand in 2021, and the import of rice will continue to increase in the year of 2021.

China's wheat import will increase by 16.2% and its export will decrease by 3.5% in 2021. From the overall supply and demand situation of domestic wheat, it is less likely to maintain a high level of import in the future, and it is expected that wheat import will increase in 2021.

China's import of maize is expected to increase by 65.9% in 2021 while its export will be basically flat. The large increase will be promoted by the tight relationship between supply and demand of maize in China. In addition, China's domestic maize price, as a result of rising produciton cost, will still be higher than the international market price.

China's soybean import will increase by 6.4% in 2021, and its export will be basically flat. Due to the steady growth of China's soybean consumption demand and limited domestic soybean production, it is expected that China's soybean import will continue to increase in 2021.

Figure 4.19 Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2021 (%)