Table 5.1 presents this year’s second estimate by the CropWatch team of global maize, rice, wheat and soybean production in 2021. Winter crops in the Northern Hemisphere are still growing and summer crops are in very early stages, or yet to be planted in May. The harvest of last year's summer season/monsoon season in southern hemisphers has been completed while winter crops were mostly in their vegetative growth period. CropWatch will further update and review the production in the August and November 2020 CropWatch bulletins when more in-season satellite data become available.

The current bulletin only focuses on the crops grown or harvested between January and April as listed in table 5.1 below, including Afghanistan, Argentina, Brazil and other 36 major agricultural producing and exporting countries. The production values for each country are all remote sensing-based estimates/predictions while global production is projected by combining remote sensing model estimates and production trends.The percentage of modelled global production varies according to crops: 18% for maize, 36% for rice, 76% for wheat (most of it being northern hemisphere winter wheat) and 47% for soybeans.

Based on the remote sensing monitoring and forecasting of mjor crops (maize, rice, wheat, and soybean) that are in growing period or to be harvested, this report further analyzes the impact of the Covid-19 on the production of major grain and oil crop. 

(1) Global production

Global maize production in 2021 is expected to be 1.059 billion tons, down 1.1% and 11.66 million tons; global rice production is expected to be 753 million tons, down 1.0%; global wheat production is 726 million tons, down 2.1% and 15.66 million tons; global soybean production is expected to be 320 million tons, down 1.0%. 2021 The widespread dry and hot weather in January-early May of the year adversely affected the production of global staple food and oil crops, and the impact of the Covid-19 on the production chain of food and oil crops further exacerbated the tight situation of international staple food and oil crop supply.

(2) Wheat

Some of the major wheat producing countries in the northern hemisphere shrank in acreage. In India, Pakistans, winter wheat production is almost all irrigated agriculture, usually wheat sowing period of precipitation conditions will not have a significant impact on wheat planting area. Due to the impact of severe Covid-19 epidemic, wheat sown area shrunk by 2.0% and 3.0%, respectively. Since late March this year, there has been a steep increase in the number of confirmed cases of the Covid-19 in India, France, Germany and Iran, which may also affect the upcoming wheat harvest. China is expected to increase winter wheat production by 0.7% due to effective controls and measures to protect winter wheat acreage and yields, which have increased slightly.

Most winter wheat-producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere suffered from low rainfall and generally lower yields. Wheat in most winter wheat-producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere were sown during September-October 2020, and the overall precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere since sowing was lower than the average of the past 15 years. By early May 2021, the growth of winter wheat in many countries such as Afghanistan, Belarus, France, Uzbekistan, India and Pakistan was significantly lower than that of the same period last year, and wheat yields decreased by 19.1%, 11.4%, 7.2%, 5.1%, 3.5% and 3.2%, respectively. Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Poland, Hungary and other countries wheat shrinkage more than 3%. The decline in winter wheat yields and acreage resulted in a more than 5%decline in winter wheat production in Afghanistan, France, Hungary, India, Iran, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan, resulting in a 2.1% reduction in global wheat production. Morocco saw a significant increase in wheat yields compared to the severe drought year of 2020, with a recovery increase in wheat production of 43.2%.

Global wheat production is generally lower than 2020 due to multiple factors such as drought and the Covid-19 epidemic.

(3) Soybean

In 2021, the total soybean production in Argentina and Brazil, the two major soybean producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere, was 149.44 million tons , a 2.7% reduction. Among them, Brazil's soybean production was 96.3 million tons, a 4.7%reduction and 4.74 million ton reduction in production, achieving the lowest yield in the past three years, which is related to the reduction in planted area caused by the country's Covid- epidemic, drought-induced yield decline and fertilization and dosing and other field management measures are not timely, not in place and other factors. Argentina soybean production is 53.14 million tons, an increase of about 1.1%, mainly due to good agro-meteorological conditions in January-April prompted a small increase in soybean yields.

(4) Maize

Unfavorable agro-meteorological conditions led to a year-over-year decline in maize production in the Southern Hemisphere and Equatorial countries. Total maize production in the Southern Hemisphere and Equatorial countries (Table 5.1) was 191.17 million tons, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year and a decrease of 6.94 million tons; Bangladesh, Angola, Brazil and Kenya experienced the largest year-on-year decreases in maize production, with 20.8%, 13.9%, 7.3% and 4.0% decreases, respectively. Among them, the main reason for the reduction in maize production in Kenya is the reduction in planted area, Bangladesh and Angola are mainly due to drought led to a decline in rain-fed maize yields, the significant decline in maize production in Brazil is affected by the dual impact of persistent drought and the new crown epidemic, maize production was substantially damaged. South Africa, Zambia and the Philippines 3 countries agro-meteorological conditions are generally conducive to maize production, 3 countries maize production increase of 5.5%, 3.1% and 4.5% year-on-year, respectively.

Using early monitoring indicators of crop acreage, it was found that the progress of maize sowing in Ethiopia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico and Turkey is 22.1%, 11.4%, 11.0%, 6.6% and 3.9% lower than the same period last year, respectively, and if unfavorable agro-meteorological conditions continue later, it is expected that maize acreage and production in the above five countries will be lower than last year.

(5) Rice

Most rice producing countries in South and Southeast Asia experienced a year-on-year decline in rice production. 2021 January - early May, precipitation in most parts of South and Southeast Asia was significantly low, with Bangladesh receiving the lowest level of precipitation in the same period in the past 15 years. severe drought led to a significant decline in rice production during the dry season, with Bangladesh, Cambodia and Indonesia experiencing a 4.0%, 2.7% and 1.3% reduction in rice production, respectively. Myanmar was affected by a variety of unfavorable factors, and the rice planting area shrank by 6.2% year-on-year, which, coupled with the decline in yield due to drought conditions, caused a significant reduction of 7.7% in rice production in the country. On the contrary, dry season precipitation in Thailand and the Philippines was more than 30% higher than the average precipitation, prompting rice production to increase by 2.2% and 4.5%, respectively.

Table 5.1: 2021 cereal and soybean production estimates in thousands tonnes.