Humans are facing unprecedented disasters in 2021, such as mega-fires, extreme weather events, droughts, desert locust swarms, and the COVID-19 pandemic. They negatively impact health, food production, nutrition and the economy. These disasters are highly interacting in a connected world to form various familiar and unfamiliar challenges, particularly to the agriculture sector. This report presents the major disasters that threatened human lives and food production in the first quarter of 2021.

Desert Locust

Locusts keep threatening and devastating crop fields, mainly in East and West Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Thanks to the massive control process conducted during the last four months in the Horn of Africa, the number of adult locusts was notably reduced. However, high rains in April helped remaining swarms to mature in May, giving rise to hopper bands, particularly in Ethiopia. Small groups of adults were also observed over other African countries such as Sudan, Mali, Algeria, and Morocco. Moreover, a large movement of mature desert locust adults carried by southerly winds from the Arabian Peninsula toward Syria, Lebanon, Jorden, and Iraq was also observed.

Figure 5.1 FAO Locust Data Explorer: (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/de4f7abc248545f6bb514c3d38f59f26)

Based on current information on locusts’ distribution and the future weather forecasts, it is expected that more swarms will immigrate from the African horn towards eastern Ethiopia by July and towards the south to reach Kenya in June. Moreover, according to FAO experts forecast, a large number of hopper bands are expected to move towards Yemen and west Iran by May-July.

Figure 5.2 FAO forecast to locust movement in May-July 2021 (http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/common/ecg/1914/en/DL511e.pdf).

Floods & Cyclone

Tropical Cyclone Eloise severely hit Southern African countries, notably Mozambique, in late January 2021, causing the death of a dozen people and severe damage to infrastructure due to heavy floods. In central Mozambique, the storm and subsequent floods caused the displacement of more than 16,000 people, damaged around 17,000 houses, and caused  the loss of many people's lives. The floods also caused landslides near Beira, Mozambique. In this region, 25 centimeters of rain was recorded in only 24 hours, leading to rivers overflow and road closures. Moreover, tens of thousands hectares of farmland were submerged. In addition, many tree crops were destroyed by the intense wind storms associated with the cyclone.

Figure 5.3 Flooding occurred in Mozambique after Hurricane Eloise in January 2021. The left image was acquired before the floods on December 27, 2019, while the right image was acquired on January 30, 2021, which shows the flooded area (dark blue). Both images were acquired by Landsat 8 OLI sensor and displayed in false color (bands 7-5-3 in RGB combination). Source: (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147866/eloise-floods-mozambique).

In Angola and, more specific the Luanda Province, severe flooding started after a period of heavy rain on April 19. Drainage channels blocked by garbage reportedly worsened the situation. The floods caused the death of 24 persons, the damage to 2289 houses, 4 bridges, and 14 schools, as reported by the national government. In the north of Africa, Morocco and Algeria were hit by floods in early March 2021.

Over the East Coast of Australia, heavy rains began on March 16, 2021. They led to widespread flooding, which affected regions from the North Coast to the Sydney metropolitan area in the south. The floods were considered the worst flooding in the last 60 years, and the Australian government declared many parts of the East Coast a natural disaster zone. The economic losses were extreme since the floods have forced 18,000 people to evacuate. The floods are expected to contribute to rising food prices due to the losses of hundreds of livestock and crops and infrastructure damage. The most severe damage was in the farms in the Mid-North Coast; the region produces bananas, avocados, and 75% of Australia's blueberries.

In South American countries, including Venezuela, Colombia, Bolivia, and Brazil, severe floods in April were responsible for the displacement of thousands of people and the destruction of infrastructures. More notably, the Floods in Oriximiná, Pará in Brazil, affected approximately 14,020 people, flooded 3,000 homes, and caused severe livestock and crop damage. In Asia, severe floods were reported in Vietnam and Philippines in April 2021, affecting thousands of citizens in both countries and the death of 3 persons in North Vietnam.

Drought

Taiwan is facing the worst drought in more than five decades during 2021. The government had to ration the water for households and businesses. It resorted to cloud seeding around several reservoirs. However, most reservoirs in Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Miaoli are less than 15% full, while in central Taiwan, many reservoirs are even less than 10% full, as measured in March and April 2021. For example, the official data showed that the Baoshan Reservoir was only 9% full in March 2021 compared to 34% in March 2020. Farmers were the group hit hardest by the extreme drought conditions. Struggling to ensure supplies, irrigatiion was stopped for more than 74,000 hectares of farmland last year. 

Figure 5.4 Water level changes observed in Baoshan Reservoir since 2020 (URL: https://international.thenewslens.com/article/149527).

The USA is also facing a dry spring season in 2021 after a weak 2020-summer monsoon caused a lack of rainfall, particularly in states such as Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. According to NOAA's forecast over those states, higher than average spring temperatures and low soil moisture caused drought conditions to intensify. The current spring drought is expected to hamper winter wheat production and force farmers to reduce the area cultivated with wheat or replace it with other crops such as yellow pea due to its relatively low input costs and its ability to survive on less moisture.

Figure 5.5 Map of drought conditions in the United States on March 23, 2021 (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/).

A severe drought hit Brazil during its rainy season from November to April 2021. It is still ongoing and is considered the worst drought in 20 years. It has caused the rise of major crop prices such as corn, wheat, and soybeans. Parana, the second-largest corn-producing state in Brazil, is currently experiencing the most severe drought conditions. Other region that are badly affected are the Northeast and the Pantanal.

Figure 5.6 The rise of corn price due to severe drought in Brazil started in April 2021.

In Afghanistan, below-normal rainfall since October 2020 led to severe drought by the beginning of this year. It is still ongoing and has caused reduced accumulation of snow. This is critical for water access during the spring and summer agricultural seasons. Hence, a deficit in wheat production by 16 to 27% is expected this year. This deficit is expected to worsen the food insecurity situation in the country since the number of provinces under acute hunger has increased from four provinces in the first quarter of 2020 to 10 provinces in March.

COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to threaten human health, the economy, and food production in 2021. Although many vaccines were developed by the end of 2020, the vaccination process has only started in January 2021 and is still ongoing. The third wave of COVID-19 severely hit several countries. India was the world's worst-hit country in early April 2021. The number of infected people in India by the end of April exceeded 19 million people, and the number of the total deaths was above 200 thousand, as reported by national and international organizations.

The sharp rise in coronavirus cases overlaps with a so-called “agriculture crisis” in India because thousands of Indian farmers have been protesting since September 2020 over three new agricultural laws that they say threaten their livelihoods. These three laws allow farmers and traders to do business outside government-run wholesale markets that have dominated agriculture since the Green Revolution. The laws also shorten the list of staple crops, which are considered essential to Indians' nutrition and to the agricultural economy, to 22 crop types. Nearly 90% of India’s agricultural sector comprises small and marginal farmers, making them particularly vulnerable to economic shocks. Particularly with COVID-19 lockdowns, the farmers found their movements restricted and faced a shortage of laborers, including farmworkers and operators for harvest machinery. The overlap between economic shocks and the COVID-19 pandemic threatens India's national food security and adds more pressure on Indian farmers.

Sources:

http://www.fao.org/locusts/en/

http://floodlist.com/africa/angola-luanda-floods-april-2021

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/market-matters-blog/blog-post/2021/03/29/will-current-drought-affect-2021

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/taiwan-drought-highlights-water-stress-as-growing-environmental-risk-04-05-2021#:~:text=Data%20from%20Taiwan's%20Central%20Weather,and%20businesses%20in%20April%202021.

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/IPC_Afghanistan_AcuteFoodInsec_2021MarchNov_report.pdf

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/fire/202104

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-farmers-vow-carry-months-long-protest-despite-concerns-over-coronavirus-2021-04-15/

https://www.theigc.org/blog/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-smallholder-farmers-in-india-and-the-way-forward/

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/03/02/971293844/indias-farmer-protests-why-are-they-so-angry?t=1621144838754

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-04/fastest-u-s-corn-planting-since-2015-cools-bullish-market-mood