Chapter 3. Core countries 

3.1 Overview 

Chapters 1 and 2 have focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 42 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns. 

1. Introduction 

The global agroclimatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The "core countries", including major producing and exporting countries, are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agroecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well. 

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 166 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers. 

2. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries 

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tons of the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans respectively. The United States and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops, whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops. 

Maize: 

Maize exports are dominated by just 4 countries: USA, Brazil, Argentina and the Ukraine. Together, they supply three quarters of maize being traded internationally. In South America, this reporting period covered the grain-filling period of late (2nd crop) maize and its harvest. In Brazil, conditions for maize were unfavorable. The severe drought conditions in all major maize producing states of Brazil persisted throughout this monitoring period and below average production is to be expected. In Argentina, conditions had been favorable, as reported in the May CropWatch bulletin.

In the USA, the western and northern zones of the Corn Belt were affected by drought conditions as well. On the contrary, conditions in the southern and eastern zones were favorable. Hence, the situation for US maize production is mixed. In Europe, conditions so far have been favorable for maize production, although the temperatures in Western Europe, such as in France, were cooler than average, especially in April and May. Rainfall conditions in Romania and the Ukraine have been favorable and high production can be expected from eastern Europe. 

In China, maize was off to a good start, helped by the generally above-average precipitation and favorable temperatures.  Flooding conditions in late July caused some damage to maize in the Huanghuaihai plain.

Rice: 

Four out of the 5 top rice exporting countries are located in South and Southeast Asia: India supplies about 1/3 of the rice that is internationally traded, followed by Thailand with 1/5. The USA, number 3, supplies less than 10%. Vietnam contributes about 7% and Pakistan close to 6%. 

Conditions for winter (Rabi) season rice production were generally favorable in India, the largest rice exporter. The region of irrigated dry season (Boro) rice production is limited to West Bengal, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Assam. However, Boro rice yields are much higher than those obtained in the Kharif (rainy) season. Another region with important dry season rice production is Southeast Asia. Thailand and Vietnam rank in the 2nd and the 3rd position of exporting countries. In these two countries, crop conditions were generally favorable. Conditions for the other important rice producing countries and regions, such as the Philippines and Indonesia,  were generally favorable during this monitoring period. 

Rainy (monsoon) season rice production has been off to a good start in South and Southeast Asia, aided by average rainfall conditions, although the onset of the monsoon rains was a bit delayed in some states of India. Similarly, conditions in China have been favorable. Rice production in the Sacramento Valley of California is being negatively impacted by the severe drought conditions, whereas the conditions in the other rice producing regions of the USA have been much more favorable, as they received abundant rainfall. All in all, rice production is stable at a global level. 

Wheat:

This monitoring period covers the sowing of wheat in the Southern Hemisphere. Conditions were favorable in Argentina, Cape Province of South Africa and Australia. In Brazil, the wheat production region has been affected by a prolonged drought, which may cause a reduction in area planted and hamper crop establishment. In the East African Highlands, conditions for wheat sowing from April to June were generally favorable. 

Most winter wheat sown in the Northern Hemisphere reached maturity by May, June or July. Spring wheat harvest typically starts in August. Conditions for winter wheat in the Central Plains and the South of the USA were generally favorable. However, the Pacific Northwest was affected by high temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Spring wheat production in the northern states of the USA and the Canadian Prairies has been affected by drought conditions and hot temperatures, which will cause a yield reduction. Winter wheat production in the Maghreb had benefitted from above average rainfall, and production was above average for Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia.   In Europe, moisture conditions were generally favorable for wheat production. However, severe storms caused lodging in some areas and the abundant rainfall posed challenges for wheat harvest in some places. Eastern Europe and Russia generally benefitted from above average rainfall as well, and prospects are favorable. Kazakhstan, as most of Central Asia, however, suffered from drought conditions, which will cause a significant yield reduction as compared to last year. In Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, the crops also suffered from severe drought conditions which reduced yields.

In India and Pakistan, where wheat was harvested in late March and April, the crop had benefitted from generally favorable weather conditions.  Winter wheat in the North China Plain reached maturity in late May/early June. Conditions were generally favorable and good yields were obtained. Some of the grains stored on the farms got damaged during the floods in the Huanghuaihai plain in late July. Conditions for spring wheat production in northern China have been favorable so far.

Soybean: 

In North America, production has benefitted from sufficient rainfall in most production regions, such as the Midwest in the USA and Ontario in Canada. However, the Dakotas had been affected by drought conditions. In the Ukraine, another main exporter of soybean, growing conditions have been favorable during this monitoring period. Conditions for soybean production in China have been favorable so far as well, mainly due to above-average rainfall. In South America, most of the soybeans had been harvested during the previous monitoring period.

3. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes (1) 

(1) Rainfall (Figure 3.1) 

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of April to July 2021 total relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in percent

The severe drought conditions in the west of the USA impacted wheat production in the Pacific North West, although most of it is irrigated. However, the lack of rainfall was combined with record setting temperatures, which in turn can shorten the grain-filling period of wheat. Rainfed spring wheat production in the Canadian Prairies and the northern USA was also impacted by below average rainfall. Winter wheat production in Ontario, as well as in Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma and Texas experienced normal to above average rainfall. Maize and soybean production in the northern USA, including the western and northern regions of the Corn Belt was also affected by drier than usual weather, whereas for the other regions of the Midwest, as well as for the South and East Coast of the USA, favorable rainfall conditions had been observed. Production of summer crops in Mexico benefitted from above average rainfall, putting an end to the prolonged drought. In Central America, as well as the entire west coast of South America, the rainfall deficit ranged from between 10 to 30%, which has a negative impact on maize production in Central America. In Brazil, the severe drought conditions continued, causing challenges for wheat planting in the South. In Argentina, on the other hand, rainfall conditions were more favorable. Wheat production in the Maghreb in North Africa benefitted from above average rainfall. In Morocco, it was 30% above average. Conditions in East Africa, especially in Sudan and Ethiopia were favorable for planting of wheat and maize. In West Africa, a delay of the onset of the rainy season as well as below average rainfall caused generally unfavorable conditions for the sowing of summer crops. In southern Africa, rainfall had been predominantly normal during the previous monitoring period. Most crops reached maturity between April and June. The drier than normal weather created favorable conditions for harvest. Most of the wheat that is grown during the winter months in the southern hemisphere is irrigated. Thus, there is limited impact of the drought conditions (rainfall deficit is greater than -30%) on the establishment of the wheat. Wheat and maize production in Europe, as well as in most of Russia, generally benefitted from normal to above average rainfall. Rainfall was also abundant in the center and north of China, favoring wheat, maize and rice production. The south of China, as well as Myanmar and most of the Middle East and parts of Central Asia were affected by below average rainfall. Most of the countries in the Middle East and Central Asia are suffering from prolonged drought conditions that already started in the previous monitoring period. Especially in Turkey, Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan, the severe drought is causing additional hardships for the local population. Good rainfall in Australia has been creating favorable conditions for its wheat production.

(2) Temperature anomalies (Figure 3.2) 

Figure 3.2 National and subnational temperatute anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) of April to July 2021 average relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in °C

The drought plagued the West of the USA as well as the Canadian Prairies and the northern states of the USA were affected by several heat waves during this monitoring period. The heat, in combination with the drought, will have a negative impact on crop production in those regions. The cooler, below average, temperatures in the Southeast of the USA are not expected to have an impact on crop production in that region. The cooler than usual temperatures in Western and Central Europe slowed the growth of the crops in the spring, but should not have an effect on yield levels. Similarly, the warmer than usual temperatures in Russia will not impact yield levels. Temperature departures from average are expected to have a very limited impact on crop production in the other regions of the world.

(3) RADPAR anomalies (Figure 3.3) 

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of April to July 2021 total relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in percent

The higher than normal radiation in the drought affected regions of the USA, Canada and South America, West- Central and Southern Africa increases evapotranspiration and thus exacerbates the drought conditions. The below average radiation in East Asia will have a limited impact on crop production in that region, as radiation levels are generally high during summer. 

(4) Biomass accumulation potential BIOMSS (Figure 3.4) 

Figure 3.4 National and subnational bionass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of April to July 2021 total relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in percent

The biomass accumulation map shows favorable prospects for most of the USA, although drought might have reduced the production potential in some regions. Above average biomass estimates had been calculated for the most of Russia, southern India and Southeast Asia.