Wheat, maize and rice are the main cereals that are grown in Afghanistan. The sowing of spring wheat starts in March and April and the harvest is in August and September. Winter wheat is sown in October and November and harvested in May and June. Maize sowing starts in May and harvest is in August. Likewise, rice sowing starts in May/June and harvest is in October / November.

Afghanistan was affected by severe drought conditions during the previous monitoring period. Apart from early May, rainfall was below average for most of the current monitoring period. The cropped arable land is mainly located in Badghis, Faryab, Balkh, Kunduz, Takhar, Badakhshan, and Nuristan. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased by 34% from the 5YA. This also directly led to the low VCI, which is only 0.4. According to the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) map, the vegetation in the east was better than in the west. As to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, crop conditions in some areas (about 16.5% of total cropped areas) were above average or close to average from April to July, mainly distributed in Mahajer and Kunduz. The proportion of areas with crop growth slightly lower than the average level was 41.9%, mainly distributed in the east, south and northeast of Afghanistan. In addition, the growth of crops in 41.6% of the cultivated land area was significantly lower than the average level. This was mainly in the northwest, especially in the north of Herat province and Qala-e-naw province.  The rainfall increased suddenly in the first ten days of May, reaching 80 mm, which is 2 to 3 times of the precipitation in other periods. According to the meteorological data, the precipitation mainly occurred in Herat, Badghis and Faryab provinces. The flooding caused by the precipitation directly reduced CALF. This bulletin believes that the war also had a great impact on agriculture, causing a decline in CALF. During the monitoring period, most parts of Afghanistan were at war, and the prospect for crop production is far below normal.

Regional analysis

CropWatch subdivides Afghanistan into four zones based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topography. They are described below as Dry region, Central region with sparse vegetation, Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region, and Mixed dry farming and grazing region.

The RAIN in the Central region with sparse vegetation was 183 mm (+23%). The TEMP was 14.4°C (-0.1°C), and the RADPAR was 1630 MJ/m², at an average level. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, the NDVI was lower than the average level between April and July. BIOMSS increased by 1%, CALF had increased by 3% and VCIx was 0.56.

The Dry region recorded 95 mm of rainfall (RAIN +27%), TEMP was higher than average at 22.7°C (+0.1°C), and RADPAR was 1651 MJ/m² (-1%). According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions were lower than the five-year average in the monitoring period. CALF in this region decreased by 16% and VCIx was 0.24.

In the Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region, the following indicator values were observed: RAIN 334 mm (+11%); TEMP 17.4°C (+0.1°C); RADPAR 1595 MJ/m² (+2%). BIOMSS was 420 g DM/m² (-4%) and CALF was 22% below average. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, NDVI was lower than the average level and VCIx was 0.59.

The Mixed dry farming and grazing region recorded 62 mm of rainfall (RAIN -8%). TEMP was 21.5°C (+0.6°C) and the RADPAR was 1647 MJ/m², at an average level. CALF was 87% below the 5YA. VCIx was 0.25 and BIOMSS decreased by 1%. According to the crop condition development graph, the NDVI was much lower than the 5YA throughout the monitoring period.

Figure 3.5 Afghanistan’s crop condition, April - July 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI     (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (central_Sparse_Veg Region (left) and Mixed_Farming_Graze Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mixed_Dry_Irrigated Region (left) and Dry (right))

Table 3.1 Afghanistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April – July 2021

Table 3.2 Afghanistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April – July 2021