During the monitoring period, the harvest of summer crops (maize, soybean, and rice) was almost concluded except for maize in the north-eastern regions which was still at peak growing stage in July. Wheat was sown in April to May and was approaching its peak growth phase by the end of July. Overall crop conditions in Brazil remained below the 5-year average.
The whole growing season of summer crops was dominated by dry and hot weather. Agro-climatic indicators at national scale present generally unfavorable conditions with 40% below average rainfall, 0.6°C higher temperature and 6% above average RADPAR. Shortage of rainfall together with the high temperature and radiation resulted in BIOMSS being 7% below the 15YA. Rainfall profiles illustrated that all 10-day accumulations of rainfall stayed below average throughout the four-month monitoring period. The entire country was affected by the hot and dry weather. Almost all states received well below average rainfall except for the northwest. Accordingly, high RADPAR was observed in all states except for Roraima where radiation was 3% below average. Dry and hot weather resulted in a dramatic drop of BIOMSS in some major agricultural producing states, including Goias (-48%), Mato Grosso (-19%), and Minas Gerais (-12%). As presented by the BIOMSS departure map, central Brazil presented larger than 20% negative departures while southern Brazil, Coastal areas, and northern Brazil presented above average BIOMSS. The CWAIs for all major agricultural states are listed in Annex A, table A.5. For more detailed information, it is recommended to visit CropWatch Explorer (http://cropwatch.com.cn/newcropwatch/main.htm?language=en).

Due to the prolonged dry weather, NDVI profiles for Brazil presented below-average values throughout the reporting period. NDVI departure clustering map and profiles also show generally below average crop condition, except for the scattered areas (dark green color) in northern Brazil, Southern Brazil and Eastern Coastal areas. Crops in vast agricultural producing areas in Parana Basin remained in unfavorable conditions as a result of drought. The phenology of second maize in Central and Southern Brazil, mainly in Mato Gross and Mato Gross Do Sul was delayed by the dry weather as indicated by NDVI profiles. Irrigation of the second season crop helps reduce the negative impact of dry and hot weather conditions on crop growth. The NDVI was higher than average at peak growing season in June. According to the bar graph depicting drought proportions, the percentages of cropland suffering from moderate to severe drought remained high since May 2021, indicating that the drought situation has not eased. Although VCIx map showed overall high values across the country, the continuously insufficient water supply negatively affected the crops and the national VCIx was  at 0.87, which was much lower compared with the previous monitoring period. It seems that the dry weather did not affect the crop cultivation and the CALF was at 99%, comparable with the 5YA.
All in all, crop conditions in Brazil were below average and CropWatch estimates unfavorable outputs for the summer crops.

Regional analysis

Considering the differences of cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil. These include the Central Savanna, the east coast, Parana River, Amazon zone, Mato Grosso zone, Southern subtropical rangelands, mixed forest, and farmland and the Nordeste.
Similar to the dry and hot weather pattern at the national level, all AEZs received below average rainfall ranging from -8% in Amazonas to -81% in Central Savanna. Above average temperatures were recorded in most AEZs except for Coast (at average level) and Southern subtropical rangelands (-0.3ºC). Central savanna was also the zone with the largest positive departure of temperature (+1.5ºC). Meanwhile, above average RADPAR was also observed in all AEZs with largest departure in Parana Basin at 11% above the 15YA. The prolonged dry, hot and sunny weather conditions in the Central savanna, Mato Grosso zone, Parana Basin and Nordeste hampered crop growth and resulted in lower BIOMSS. The other four AEZs received more than 200 mm rainfall and the BIOMSS was moderately above average from +2% to +7%.
Adverse weather conditions resulted in generally below average crop development in all AEZs but at different levels.
Below average crop conditions were observed in Amazonas, Coast, Parana basin and Southern subtropical rangelands. The CALF remained at average level while VCIx varied across AEZs. Largest VCIx was observed in Amazonas at 0.94 while Parana Basin presented lowest VCIx at 0.83. As the first maize and soybean crops were already harvested by April, and the above mentioned AEZs are not the major producing regions for the second summer crops, the below average NDVI has limited impact on the output of the second summer crops. Growth of wheat in Southern subtropical rangelands was still in its early phase, but it was also affected by the dry weather.
Crop conditions in Central Savanna and Nordeste were in general slightly below average but well below 2020 levels. These two AEZs received the least rainfall among all AEZs at 40 mm and 108 mm respectively. As compared to last year when these two regions were dominated by wet conditions, the shortage of rainfall caused much poorer crop conditions this year. Accordingly, VCIx was also much lower than in 2020. 

Slightly below average crop condition were observed in Mato Grosso, and Northeastern mixed forest and farmland. The current monitoring period only covers the growing season of the second summer crops which is mainly cultivated in Mato Grosso Zone. Although dry and hot weather dominated the two AEZs, irrigation of the second season crop might reduce the negative impact of adverse weather conditions on crop growth. CALF for the two zones remained average and VCIx values were at 0.92 and 0.95 respectively. In general, second maize output is projected at close to average levels.

Figure 3.11 Brazil crop condition, April-July 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Brazil

(c) Time series rainfall profile_Brazil

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure profiles

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) Potential biomass departure from 15YA

(g) Proportion of drought categories from April - July 2021

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Amazon

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coast zone

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(L) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Northeastern mixed forest and farmland

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(o) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

Table 3.13  Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15 years average, April - July 2021

Table 3.14  Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5 years average, April - July 2021