The monitoring period for this report lasts from April to July, which encompasses Ethiopia's Meher crops planting season. Maize and wheat are the major cereal crops grown in the country during this season.

At the country level, the cumulative precipitation (RAIN), average temperature (TEMP) and solar radiation (RADPAR) decreased slightly by 4%, 0.5°C, and 3%, respectively, compared with the average levels of the past 15 years. While the average values give a favorable impression, the uneven distribution of accumulated precipitation over time and the war have reduced the accumulated potential biomass by 11%. The accumulated precipitation almost reached the 15-year maximum in late April and early May. A drought spell lasting for almost 3 weeks in late May and early June caused unfavorable conditions for the establishment of maize.                                                                                                                                                                      The crop condition development graph based on NDVI also confirms this fact. It can be seen that the NDVI values have two troughs due to excessive precipitation and drought that delayed crop planting. The abnormally low NDVI value in July may have been caused by the cloud cover in the satellite image during the rainy season. The spatial NDVI patterns show that 37.4% of the region had NDVI values lower than the 15-year average, mainly in the eastern area.

Another factor is the war. Due to the further escalation of the civil war between the government forces and the Tigray armed forces in the Tigray State in northern Ethiopia, the agriculture was hit hard. According to data from the United Nations and the World Health Organization, the civil war has led to the desolation of farmland and economic crises in many areas. In Ethiopia's Amhara and Afar states, more than 300,000 people face severe hunger. In the Tigray area, the center of the war, at least 5.2 million people have fallen into or are about to fall into famine, and there is a huge food shortage. The planting of the crops has been hampered and it is almost certain that Ethiopia's food production in 2021 will decline due to the war. The maximum VCI map clearly reflects the scope of the war's impact on Ethiopia: the VCIx of the northernmost Tigray Region is less than 0.5, the VCIx of the adjacent central and eastern regions is between 0.5-0.8, whereas the western and southern regions are not affected. 

In short, the overall crop condition in Ethiopia is slightly below average. In the east and southeast of the country, the growth and development of crops is negatively affected by the uneven distribution of precipitation over time. The farther the north, the greater is the impact of war on agriculture. In the northernmost Tigray state, agriculture has been devastated. Crops in the western region are growing well. A more detailed regional analysis is shown below.

Regional analysis

In the Semi‐arid pastoral areas, a typical livestock production zone, the accumulated precipitation was above average (+39%). The average temperature and solar radiation were close to average (TEMP -0.3°C, RADPAR -3%), and the cumulative potential biomass dropped by 16%. At the same time, the NDVI values were below average in April and June. The value of VCIx was 0.65. Compared with the 5-year average, CALF dropped by 34%. Overall, the prospects for livestock production are slightly unfavorable.

In the Southeastern Mendebo highlands zone, the CorpWatch indicators during the monitoring period of this report are as follows: RAIN -17%, TEMP -0.5°C, RADPAR -2%, BIOMASS -11%, CALF -1%, and VCIx 0.82. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI is slightly lower than the 5-year average. In general, the growth of maize in Southeastern Mendebo highlands zone remained at an average level.

In South-eastern mixed maize zone, the accumulated precipitation was close to the 15-year average. The average temperature and radiation decreased slightly by 0.6°C and 2% respectively. Due to uneven precipitation, the cumulative potential biomass was lower than the average level (-13%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI was lower than the 5-year average. VCIx is 0.78 and CALF was reduced by 2%. The crops in this area are in normal condition.

In the Western mixed maize zone, maize is the most important crop planted in the Meher season. The accumulated precipitation in the area remained unchanged. Combining the slightly lower average temperature (-0.5°C) and slightly higher radiation (RADPAR +1%), the estimated cumulative biomass was close to the 15-year average (-3%). VCIx is 0.95 and CALF remained unchanged. According to CorpWatch indicators, crop conditions are favorable.

The northern arid area is an agricultural area in northern Ethiopia. Due to the war, the cropped arable land fraction was almost zero. In 2021, the crops in this area are facing the risk of no harvest, and the food supply problem of the local people is very worrying.

Figure 3.15 Ethiopia’s crop condition, April- July 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                              (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                   (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi‐arid pastoral (left) South‐eastern Mendebo highlands (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South‐eastern mixed maize zone (left) and South‐eastern mixed maize zone (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern arid area)

(k)Tigray war

(l)An aid distribution point in Mekelle in the Tigray region

Table 3.21 Ethiopia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April- July 2021

Table 3.22. Ethiopia’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April- July 2021