During the monitoring period, the harvest of the main rice and maize was completed, and secondary rice and maize were growing.

In general, conditions were relatively dry at the national scale. Precipitation was below the 15YA (RAIN -11%), but temperature (TEMP +0.3°C) and radiation (RADPAR +6%) were above the 15YA, resulting in a BIOMSS increase by 6% compared with 15YA. According to the national NDVI development graph, the crop conditions were below the average throughout the reporting period but close to the average in July. According to the NDVI clusters and profiles, 62.4% of the arable land, mostly located in Sumatera, Java and the western of Kalimantan, crop conditions were close to average and even higher than the average in July. 14.4%, 9.8%, 7.5% of cultivated areas, located in the southern of Sumatera and the eastern of Kalimantan were below average in late-March, mid-May and early-July respectively, and then improved to an average level immediately. On the contrary, NDVI dropped to a below-average level in July on 5.8% of the area, mostly concentrated in West Papua. Considering that CALF reached almost 100% and that the maximum VCI value was 0.95, the crop conditions were normal for Indonesia.

Regional analysis

The analysis below focuses on four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (92), Java (90), the main agricultural region in the country, Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91) and West Papua (93), among which the first three are relevant for crop production. The numbers correspond to the labels on the VCIx and NDVI profile maps. In all regions, NDVI was below the 5YA in May but recovered to close to normal values by late June, except for Java.

Precipitation  was below 15YA (RAIN -19%) in Java region, but with slightly higher average TEMP (+0.3°C) and RADPAR (+6%), which may have resulted in a slightly above-average potential biomass (BIOMSS +3%). The NDVI status at the end of the last monitoring period was below the 15YA, but during this period, the NDVI development graph recovered to near the 5YA.

In Kalimantan and Sulawesi, precipitation was significantly below average (RAIN -12%) while temperature and radiation were both above the 15YA (TEMP +0.3℃, RADPAR +6%). BIOMSS (+6%) was higher than average. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were generally close to the 5YA in May. Overall, the crop conditions were close to average at the end of this monitoring period.

In Sumatra, precipitation was significantly lower than the 15YA (RAIN -19%) while temperature and radiation were above average (TEMP +0.2℃, RADPAR +5%). BIOMSS (+5%) was higher than average. According to NDVI development graph, despite the low rainfall, the crop conditions were close to the average in July. Overall, the crop conditions were normal for this monitoring period.

Figure 3.19. Indonesia’s crop condition, January – April 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA   (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles

(g) Temperature profiles

(h)) Proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with 5YA

(i)Proportion of VHIn categories compared with 5YA

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Java (left) and Kalimantan-Sulawesi (right))

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sumatra)

Table 3.29 Indonesia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2021

Table 3.30 Indonesia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January – April 2021