This report covers the sowing and growing period of spring wheat In Kazakhstan. The crop conditions were generally below average from April to July. Compared to the 15-year average, accumulated rainfall, temperature and radiation were above average (RAIN +23%, TEMP +0.1°C, RADPAR +2%). The dekadal precipitation was above the 15-year maximum in early and mid July. The dekadal temperature reached the 15-year maximum in May and early July. The favorable agro-climatic conditions resulted in an increase in the BIOMSS index by 7%. 

However, the national average maximum VCI index was 0.69 and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) went down by 13% over the recent five-year average. The spatial VCIx map matched well with the national crop condition development graphs.  Due to the impact of continual rainfall deficits from April to June and the high temperature in May, about 84.7% of croplands experienced unfavorable crop conditions from April to July. About 16.3% of croplands, which were distributed in some areas of the Kostanay, Soltustik kazakstan, and Akmola states in central northern region, and some parts of Batysdy kazakstan state in the northwest region, experienced favorable crop conditions in May and June.

Overall, due to the drought during the planting and main growth period of spring wheat, the crop output in this season is estimated to be below average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Kazakhstan, among which three are relevant for crop cultivation: the Northern region (112), the Eastern plateau and southeastern region (111) and the South region (110).

The Northern region is the main spring wheat production area. Although the accumulated rainfall was above average by 16%, the dekadal rainfalls from April to June were mostly below average. According to NDVI profiles, crop conditions were below average during the monitoring period. The average VCIx for this region was 0.67, and the proportion of cultivated land was 15% lower than the average. The spring wheat production is estimated to be below average.

The Eastern plateau and Southeastern region had the largest precipitation departure (RAIN +36%) among three regions, while temperature was below average (TEMP -0.6°C). Crop conditions in this region were below average during this reporting period. The average VCIx for this region was 0.83, and CALF was below average by 9%. Outputs for spring wheat are unfavorable. 

The South region received 100 mm of rainfall, which was lowest among the three regions. Temperature and radiation were above average. The average VCIx for this region was 0.67 and CALF was below average by 14%. The NDVI profiles show poor crop condition from April to July.

Figure 3.23 Kazakhstan's crop condition, April - July 2021

(a) Phenology of major crop

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall Index 

(e) Temperature Index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                               (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern plateau and Southeastern region)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South region)

Table 3.37 Kazakhstan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2021

Table 3.38 Kazakhstan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2021