Kenya has two rainy seasons. The long rainy season lasts from March to May and the short rainy season lasts from October to December. Maize can be grown during the long and short rains, whereas wheat is grown during the long rains only. During the monitoring period from April to July 2021, the short rain maize has been harvested, the sowing of long rain maize has started and wheat sowing starts in May.

At the national scale, precipitation was 546 mm, 12% below average. The weather was slightly cooler (TEMP -0.2°C) and RADPAR was slightly above the 15YA (3%). The BIOMSS was 1% lower than average. According to the national rainfall profiles, the 10-day accumulations of rainfall presented conditions that were close to the 15YA in April and May but significant below average in June and July. At the sub-national level, almost all regions received less rainfall and the eastern coastal region had the largest negative departure in rainfall compared with the 15YA (RAIN -26%).

The NDVI development graph at the national level shows lower than average NDVI values from April to July. Crop growth condition was significantly below average since June, mainly due to delayed maize planting caused by drought conditions. Significantly lower than average precipitation in May and June may also affect the sowing of wheat in the north. According to the NDVI clusters map  and the NDVI departure profiles, western Kenya accounting for 54% of national cropland (areas in red color) had near-average NDVI values, while other areas showed significant deviations in crop growth. This was in agreement with the maximum VCI graph which shows relatively low VCI between 0.5 and 0.8 in the central and southeastern regions. The national average VCI value reached 0.82, and the cropped arable land fraction remains virtually unchanged as compared to the 5YA. In general, crops in Kenya were severely affected by the drought, with the exception of the north-western region.

Regional analysis

The largest negative departure in RAIN was observed in the Eastern coastal region, with average TEMP and 5% above average RADPAR. The shortage of rainfall resulted in signficant drop of NDVI compared with the 5YA throughout the monitoring period. The drought conditions also hampered the sowing of crops as indicated by 10% drop in CALF compared to the 5YA. The maximum VCI was only 0.68, the lowest among the four AEZs in Kenya. In general, the crop condition was unfavorable in the coastal area with poor perspectives for livestock and crop production.

The Highland agriculture zone recorded 582 mm of rain, which was below the 15YA (-11%). In combination with lower temperatures (TEMP -0.2°C) and higher RADPAR (3%), a lower estimate for biomass resulted (-2%). The NDVI remained below 5YA from April to July. The maximum VCIx value recorded was 0.82. The CALF increased by 2% to 97%. Overall, crop growth has been severely affected by drought conditions in the upland agricultural areas where rainfall was below average.

Agro-climatic indicators in the Northern region with sparse vegetation were similar to those in the Eastern coastal region. Precipitation was significantly below average at 368 mm, decreasing by 17%. Temperature was close to the 15YA, whereas RADPAR was above average (1%). BIOMSS was below average (-2% respectively). The below average trend of its crop condition development graph indicates that the region is affected by drought. The maximum VCIx was normal at 0.73. CALF was unchanged.

South-west of Kenya includes the districts Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru, and Embu. The following indicator values were observed: RAIN 851 mm (-16%); TEMP 18.3°C (-0.5°C); RADPAR and BIOMSS are both slightly improved. CALF was unchanged and VCIx was 0.90. The crop conditions were normal. NDVI values are generally closely followed the five-year average. Despite the large variation in precipitation, its biomass, CALF and RADPAR all increased and the VCIx value remained at a level of 0.9. This indicates normal crop growth in this region.

Figure 3.24 Kenya's crop condition, April- July 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles(compared to 5 year average) (left) ,NDVI distance level clustering process line (right)

(e) Time series rainfall profile

(f) Time series temperature profile

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (eastern coastal zone (left), highland agricultural zone (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (northern rangelands (left), south-western Kenya (right))

Table 3.39. Kenya's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2021

Table 3.40. Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, April-July 2021