This report covers the production of irrigated wheat, typically sown in November and December, as well as of irrigated winter maize, sown roughly one month earlier. Maize and wheat were at the harvesting stage in March and April, respectively. Rice and soybean sowing began in April.

The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that TEMP and RADPAR were close to average and RAIN was above average (+17%). Accordingly, BIOMSS increased by 2% as compared to the 15YA. CALF was close to average and reached 85%. Favorable weather conditions and relatively high CALF made the VCI reach 0.93. 

Some parts of Mexico had suffered the worst drought in 30 years during the 2020/21 winter season. Crop growth reported in this monitoring period was initially also affected by the drought. At the national scale, the NDVI graph was not above average until mid-July. The conditions varied greatly across the country. According to its spatial pattern, the VCIx in the south was higher than in the north. Very high values (greater than 1.0) occurred mainly in the east of the Tamaulipas and the northeast of Veracruz province. Other areas with high VCIx were scattered in the eastern coastal areas, whereas extremely low values (less than 0.5) occurred in the west and north of the country.

In April, most parts of central and northern Mexico suffered from drought. The water storage levels of the reservoirs were low and farmers had to limit irrigation. This bulletin believes that this has led to reduced planting and crop growth in northern Mexico. After April, with the gradual recovery from the drought crop growth started to reach average levels. The VCIx in other regions of Mexico was moderate, with values between 0.5 and 1.0. 

As shown in the spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map, only 21.7% of the total cropped areas were positive during the entire monitoring period, mainly distributed in the south of Veracruz and Tabasco. About 59% of total cropped areas were below average, mainly in the north of Mexico.

Overall, the crop conditions in the north were below average, but reached average or above average levels in the center and south of the country.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agro-ecological regions. They include the Arid and semi-arid region (128), Humid tropics with summer rainfall (129), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (130) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (131). Regional analyses of crop conditions provide more details for the production situation in Mexico. 

The Arid and semi-arid region, located in northern and central Mexico, accounts for about half of planted areas in the country. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition in this region was below average before mid-July. VCIx was relatively low with a value of 0.89 and CALF increased by 4% compared with the 5YA. RAIN increased by 17% and TEMP and RADPAR were close to average. The Arid and semi-arid region was the most drought affected region and the VCIx was 0.89.

The region of Humid tropics with summer rainfall is located in southeastern Mexico. RAIN was significantly above average (+21%), TEMP was 0.1℃ warmer and RADPAR was near the 15YA, which resulted in an increase of BIOMSS (3%). As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were closed to average from April and July. The VCIx (0.95) confirmed favorable crop conditions in this region.

The Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains is situated in central Mexico. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below average in this region at the beginning of this monitoring period, but then recovered to average levels. The agro-climatic condition showed that RAIN increased by 16%, TEMP decreased by 0.3, and RADPAR decreased by 2% compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS also decreased by 1% and CALF was 98%. Favorable meteorological conditions and high CALF made VCIx reach 0.96.

The region called Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains is located in southern Mexico. During the monitoring period, crop conditions were below average between April and June, as shown by the NDVI time profiles. Agro-climatic conditions showed that RAIN was above average (+17%) while TEMP and RADPAR were near average (-0.1°C and -2% respectively). The VCIx for the region was 0.95 and BIOMSS was below average.

Figure 3.29 Mexico's crop condition, April - July 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                           (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right))

Table 3.49 Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April – July 2021

Table 3.50 Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April – July 2021