Myanmar produces maize, rice (two seasons) and wheat as its main crops. They are predominantly grown across the eastern mountains, central plains and the western coastal areas. The harvesting of maize was completed in April, while the second rice (summer rice) was harvested between April and June. The planting of main rice (monsoon rice) started in May and June. However, the planting period varies according to region and weather conditions. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that the crop conditions during the monitoring period were lower than average in June and July.

Compared with the 15YA, TEMP was slightly higher (+0.5℃), but RAIN showed a large drop (-18%). According to its profile, the precipitation in Myanmar continued to be below average from late April to late June. At the end of the monitoring period, the precipitation had recovered and exceeded the average level. It created favorable conditions for the planting of new crops.  RADPAR showed a small change (+2%), while the biomass (+6%) was slightly higher than average. CALF was 6% below average. During the monitoring period, the maximum VCI value for the whole country was 0.85.

The spatial distribution of crop condition can be divided into two periods according to the NDVI cluster and profile maps: Before mid-May, the crop conditions trended near average. In the second period, the crop situation was more complicated: 34.4% of the cultivated area had good crop conditions, even slightly higher than the average level, mainly distributed in the western part of Mandalay, Shan State, Yangon and Magway. In the southern region of Mandalay and the central region of Magway, 20.5% of the total cultivated area had poor crop conditions in mid-June but recovered to near average by the end of July. 13.7% of the areas, mainly in the north-central Irrawaddy, had bad crop condition in early June and returned to above average by early July. The large negative departures of NDVI were presumably due to cloud cover in the satellite images.  The VCIx map shows low values in the central part of the country. Overall crop conditions were below average.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar. They are the Coastal region, the Central plain, and the Hills region.

The cumulative precipitation in the Central plain decreased significantly (RAIN -41%), TEMP was higher (+0.9℃) and  RADPAR was close to average. The biomass was 4% higher than the average. The CALF was 77%. It showed that the cultivated land in this area was not fully utilized. It was 6% lower than the 5YA. NDVI was slightly below average during most of the monitoring period, and the maximum VCI value was 0.79 for this region.

The cumulative precipitation in the Hills region decreased by 14% compared with the average level of the past 15 years, and the temperature was 0.4℃ higher. The CALF reached 94%, which is the highest among the agricultural areas in Myanmar. The cultivated land in this region has been fully utilized. This was the only region in which RADPAR was above average (+3%),  and the biomass was  slightly above average (+5%). The maximum VCI value was 0.90 for this region. The crop condition in this region was slightly below the average level.

In the Delta and Southern Coastal region, the cumulative precipitation was below average (-13%), whereas the temperature was only 0.2℃ higher than average, and the RADPAR was close to average. CALF increased by 11% compared with the 5YA to 87%, as more cultivated land was put into use. NDVI was slightly higher than average, and the maximum VCI value reached 0.90, indicating that the crop growth in this area was relatively normal.

Figure 3.30 Myanmar crop condition, April-July 2021

(a)    Phenology of major crops

(b)    Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)    Rainfall Profile

(d)    Temperature Profile

(e)    Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) in Myanmar

(f)     Spatial NDVI patterns compared to %5YA

(g)    Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in central plain region

(h)    Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in hills region

(i)      Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in delta and southern coast region

Table 3.51 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2021

Table 3.52 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April  - July 2021