During this reporting period, winter wheat harvest was completed in June. The planting of maize and rice, together with cotton the main summer crops, started in May. Crop conditions were below average in April, but by July, they had reached average levels. The only exception was the northern highlands, where the conditions remained below average throughout this monitoring period.

RAIN was 4% below average at the country level. TEMP  and RADPAR were also below the 15YA (-0.7°C and -1% respectively). The combination of all the agro-climatic indicators resulted in BIOMSS exceeding the 15YA by 6%. Precipitation varied greatly in time and space. The dekad rainfall was continuously below average for most dekads, except for one dekad in July, when it reached maximum levels. The drier than usual conditions in May and  June caused unfavorable conditions for the planting of summer crops, although most of them are irrigated. About 40% of the crop areas experienced drought in April, as shown in the VHIn graph. After early July, summer maize and rice had benefited from the generally favorable weather conditions, but the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) decreased by 9% compared with 5YA, which may have a negative effect on the summer crop production. 

At the national level, the NDVI development graph indicated below-average conditions for most of this monitoring period. The spatial NDVI patterns and profiles show that 80% of the cropped areas were below average in April, while 39% were above average in July. About 46% of the cropped area was continuously below average, mainly located in the north highland and Punjab and some regions along the Indus river basin. The sowing of maize was hampered by unfavorable conditions in Punjab, which resulted in a lower CALF. It was also below the average of the last 5 years in the other regions. The Indus river basin, the main rice producing area, had reached average NDVI after transplanting in June. Though below-average crop conditions were observed in the three main agricultural areas in June, above-average rainfall in the Northern Highland (+37%) and the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind (+47%) regions, together with irrigation in the lower Indus river basin, might help sustain favorable crop conditions for the remainder of the growing season. The below-average CALF will reduce crop production, but high yield levels of the summer crops might still be achievable, as NDVI had improved to average levels in all 3 major production regions.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Northern highlands, Northern Punjab region and the Lower Indus river basin in South Punjab and Sind.

The NDVI development graph of Northern highlands shows below-average crop conditions from April to early July. It was caused by drier-than-usual conditions (RAIN -12%). RADPAR was near average (+1%) and temperatures slighty cooler (-0.8°C). The resulting BIOMSS fell short of the fifteen-year average by 5%. Wheat conditions were unsatisfactory due to drought; weather was generally favorable for the establishment of maize. The region achieved a rather low CALF of 50%, which is a decrease by 10% over the 5YA and VCIx is 0.68. Production is expected to be below average.

The Northern Punjab, the main agricultural region in Pakistan recorded abundant RAIN (37% above average). The TEMP was below average by 0.7°C, and the RADPAR departure was -3%. The estimated BIOMSS departure by +5%, as compared to the fifteen-year average, is probably not relevant, since this period covers the harvest of wheat and the establishment of maize and rice crops. Wheat had below-average NDVI values during the entire growth period, which resulted in below-average yields. Together with the relatively small VCIx (0.68) and low CALF (61% with a decrease by 14%), crop productions of summer crops are forecasted to be below average.

In the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind, RAIN was above average by 47%, while RADPAR and TEMP were below average by 2% and 0.5°C respectively. Estimated BIOMSS was 15% higher than the last fifteen-year average. The VCIx was at 0.69, which is normal for this period between the harvest of wheat and the establishment of the summer crops. Considering that the vast majority of land in this region is irrigated, prospects for the newly established crops are promising. But CALF was rather low (38%), 7% lower than the five-year average.Thanks to favorable weather, slightly below-average summer crop production can be expected despite a smaller planted area.

Figure  3.34  Pakistan's crop condition, April-July, 2021

(a).Phenology of major crops

(b). Pakistan national level crop-condition development graph based on NDVI(left) and time series rainfall profile, comparing the April-July 2021 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

(c). Maximum VCI

(d). Pakistan spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2021 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and associated NDVI profiles (right)

(e). crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Lower Indus river basin (Pakistan)

(f).Northern Highland (Pakistan)(right) and Northern Punjab crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left)   

(g). Proporation of VHIm categories compared with 5YA

Table3.59. Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2021

Table3.60. Pakistan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure  from 5YA, April-July 2021