During this monitoring period, the sowing of maize and spring wheat started in late April. However, the continuously cool and wet weather in the spring caused some delays in the sowing. Winter wheat harvest started in late July.

Compared to the average of the last 15 years, rainfall and RADPAR were both 1% higher and temperature was 0.4°C lower, which led to a 6% higher BIOMSS. Below-average temperatures in April and May were accompanied by above-average rainfall. Temperatures increased to above-average levels in June.  As shown by the development graph of NDVI, the conditions in the spring were not conducive to planting and  early crop development. NDVI was lower than the average of the last 5 years until early June. Subsequently, the conditions became more favorable, especially during the grain filling period of winter wheat, which started in mid-June.  NDVI approached the average of the last 5 years in June and July.

NDVI on about 24.1% of the country's arable land area, was continuously below average during the entire period scattered over the cultivated area. For another 14.7% of the crops, located mainly in the north and west region, NDVI was above average until the end of July. In addition, NDVI on 28.1% of the crops mainly in the eastern region was below average from late April to May and above average from June to July. For the rest 33.2% crops, located mainly in the southeast region, NDVI was significant below average from April to May, recover after June until near average.

CALF reached 100% and VCIx was 0.93. VCIx was above 0.8 in almost the entire country.

Overall, it appears that winter wheat yield can be expected to be near average. Conditions for spring wheat were less favorable. Maize seems to have benefitted from the warm and humid conditions that started in mid-June.

Regional analysis

The country is divided into four zones according to agro-ecological characteristics, including:  (a) the Northern oats and potatoes areas covering the northern half of  West Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria, (b) the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic sea),  (c) the Central rye and potatoes area (Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and (d) the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area (Southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Sub-Carpathian along the Czech and Slovak borders).

Although the TEMP, RAIN, RADPAR and BIOMSS differed in their departures from the average level among the four subregions (TEMP: +0.1°C, -0.2°C, -0.4°C, -0.7°C; RAIN: 0, +1%, 0, +1%; RADPAR: +2%, +1%, +1%, +2%; BIOMSS: +10%, +7%, +6%, +4%), the temporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in all four regional zones was consistent with the national characteristics, with wet and cold weather from April to May, dry and hot in June, and wet and hot in July. As shown by the crop development graphs, NDVI in the Northern oats and potatoes areas and the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area was below average only in May, and close to average in the other three months. In the Central rye and potatoes area and Southern wheat and sugar-beet area, NDVI was below average from April to May, and close to or even slightly above average from June to July.

Figure 3.36 Poland’s crop condition, April - July 2021

a. Poland phenology of major crops

b. Poland national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN, TEMP, comparing the April to July 2021 period to the previous season and the five-year/fifteen-year average (5YA) and maximum

c. Poland maximum VCI for April to July 2021 by pixel

d. Poland spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2021 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right).

 e.  Northern oats and potatoes area's crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP

f. Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area's crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP

g. Central rye and potatoes area's crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP

h. Southern wheat and sugar-beet area's crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP

Table 3.63. Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2021

Table 3.64. Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2021