In Russia, the period from April to July is a time of active crop growth. At the end of July, winter crop harvest started in many regions, and the grainfilling period of spring crops started.

According to the national data, during the analyzed period, the NDVI stayed mainly below the 5-year average, although in June, its peak values reached the 5YA in most regions. Atmospheric precipitation from April to June was above the 15-year average and in early May it reached the 15-year maximum. Starting in late June, rainfall was below last year's level and the 15-year average.  The temperature was mainly close to the 15-year average and the level of the previous year, except mid-May and the period from mid-June to mid-July when it reached the 15-year maximum. In general, the NDVI Index in Russia is lower than last year and lower than the long-term average. Most regions showed negative NDVI departure during the report period except for June. Only South Caucasus and North Caucasus regions showed positive NDVI departure from late April to June. In almost all regions, the index was below the average during the growth and maturation of winter crops. 

In the main regions of winter crop production, such as Central Russia, Central black soils region, North and South Caucasus, the Middle Volga, VCI values ranged from 0.8 to 1 and higher. VCI in the Urals and western Volga regions varied mainly from 0.5 up to 1. The situation was worse for the crops in Western Siberia and in the Volga region. It was better in Central Siberia. In the rest of the territory, it was close to normal. Thus we can expect a lower than normal harvest of spring wheat in Western Siberia and in the Volga region. The situation is better in Central Siberia, but that region's crop production is not large. 

The winter crop production is forecasted to be slightly below the long-term average. Summer crop conditions were generally close to, but below average.

Regional analysis

South Caucasus

Rainfall was 7% below the 15-year average. Temperature and RADPAR were above the 15-year average by 0.9°C and 4% correspondingly. CALF was 1% lower than the 5-year average. The VCI was 0.86. NDVI from late April to early June was close to the 5-year average. Even though the situation was worse at the beginning of the growing season, according to the NDVI profile, the winter wheat harvest is expected to be higher than last year and close to the average. The maize harvest is expected to be at the level of last year or slightly higher.

North Caucasus

Rainfall exceeded the 15-year average by 27% and temperature was higher by 0.2°C. RADPAR was down by 3% compared to the 15-year average. CALF was 1% higher than the 5-year average. The VCI was 0.90. NDVI stayed below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year until May, when it started to increase and reached the 5-year maximum in late June and then dropped back to the level of the previous year in July. Despite the fact that the situation was unfavorable at the beginning of the growing season, it improved starting in May. In accordance with the NDVI index, the winter wheat harvest is expected to be higher than last year and above average. The maize harvest is expected to be at the level of the last year or slightly higher.

Central Russia

Rainfall was 5% below average. The air temperature was 0.9°C above the average.  BIOMSS was above average by 14%. The CALF was equal to the 5-year average. The VCI was 0.97. The NDVI was mostly below the 5-year average but it reached the average level in late May and early June. The yield of winter wheat is likely to be at the level of last year, and spring wheat is slightly lower than last year and the average. As to maize, the result will depend on the weather conditions in August.

Central Chernozemic region

Rainfall was 28% higher than the 15-year average, which is the maximum deviation from the 15-year average in Russia. The air temperature was 0.4°C above the 15-year average. RADPAR was 3% below the 15-year average. BIOMSS was by 5% above average. The CALF was equal to the 5-year average. The VCI was 0.96. The NDVI was mostly below the 5-year average reaching the level of the previous year only in June. The yield of winter and spring wheat is expected to be below the level of last year and close to the long-term average. The maize yield will be below the level of last year and slightly below the average level.

Middle Volga

The atmospheric precipitation, temperature and RADPAR were higher than the 15-year average by 14%, 1.6°C and 2% respectively. BIOMSS was 17% above average. CALF was 2% below the 5-year average. The VCI was 0.85. The NDVI was mostly below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year. According to the NDVIprofile, the yield of winter, spring wheat and maize is likely to be lower than last year and the 5-year average.

Ural and western Volga

Rainfall was 29% below the 15-year average. The air temperature and RADPAR were above the 15-year average by 1.6°C and 10% correspondingly. BIOMSS was by 23% higher than the average, which is the maximum excess in Russia. CALF was 1% below the 5-year average. The VCI was 0.79. The NDVI was equal to the 5-year average until early May, when it dropped below the average level. The yield of winter and spring wheat, as well as maize is likely to be lower than last year and below average. If the conditions in August are favorable, the maize yield may reach the level of last year.

Western Siberia

Rainfall increased by 18%, while the temperature decreased by 0.3°C compared to the 15-year average. CALF was equal to the 5-year average. VCI was 0.92.  NDVI in the period from April to early June was less than the 5-year average, but from early June to late July it was equal to the 5-year average. The yield of spring wheat is expected to be close to the average and similar to last year.

Middle Siberia

Rainfall increased by 18% compared to the 15-year average. Lower temperature and less sunshine  resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS  by 8%. CALF was 4% higher. VCI was 1.02. The NDVI in the period from April to late May was less than the 5-year average, but from early June to July it exceeded the 5-year maximum. According to the NDVI graph, the yield of spring wheat is expected to be higher than the average, above last year and close to the maximum. 

Eastern Siberia

Favorable agroclimatic conditions (TEMP +1.0°C, RADPAR +4%)  brought an increase of BIOMSS by 14%. CALF was equal to the 5-year average. VCI was 0.96. The NDVI in the period from April to early June in the region was less than the 5-year average, but from early June to late July it was equal to the 5-year average. According to the graphs, the yield of spring wheat is expected to be slightly lower than the average and last year.

Figure 3.38 Russia’s crop condition. April-August 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus and Northern Caucasus)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia and Central Chernozemic region)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga and Ural and western Volga region)

(i)                Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Eastern Siberia and the Middle Siberia

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Siberia)

(h) Rainfall index

(i)                Temperature index

Table 3.67 Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions. Current season’s values and departure from 15YA. April-July 2021

Table 3.68 Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions. Current season’s values and departure from 5YA. April-July 2021