This monitoring period covers the sowing and main growing period of maize and rice, while the harvest of wheat was almost concluded by the end of July. Nationwide, RAIN was far below average (-35%), and both TEMP (+0.4℃) and RADPAR (+2%) were slightly above the 15YA. BIOMSS was 7% below average. During the last reporting period, rainfall was 7% less than average and the impact of rainfall deficiency was not yet obvious from crop condition and indicators. However in this monitoring period, especially in April and mid-May, lack of rainfall has caused negative impact on the growth of winter crops and severe drought was observed for around 10% of the country.

The NDVI-based crop condition development graph indicates below-average crop conditions during the whole monitoring period. The national average VCIx was 0.76.  The southeastern, southern, and western provinces, such as Sanliurfa, Mardin, and Adana, experienced low VCIx values ranging from 0.5 to 0.8, indicating that crops in those regions were not satisfactory. Low VCIx (< 0.5), which indicates below-average crop conditions, was mainly observed for the central provinces such as Ankara, Yozgat and Kayseri. 

In terms of the NDVI spatial departure clustering map, the results confirmed the spatial pattern described above. Due to the impact of low rainfall in April and May, strong negative departures of NDVI were observed. As shown by the VHIn graph, some areas went through dry conditions in the reporting period starting in April. Due to the severe drought, crop conditions were below average for Turkey.

Regional analysis 

The regional analysis includes four agro‐ecological zones (AEZ): the Black Sea area, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone.

In the Black Sea zone, crop conditions were  close to average. The rainfall was slightly below average (RAIN -6%), while the temperature (TEMP) increased by 0.1℃ and radiation remained average. The cropped arable land fraction was 92%, 6% below average. The average value of VCIx was high at 0.88, the highest among all four AEZs of Turkey. The crop conditions are assessed to be close to normal.

In the Central Anatolian plateau, rainfall was far below average (RAIN -40%）during this monitoring period. TEMP (+0.4℃) and RADPAR (+2%) were both above the 15YA, resulting in a decrease of the BIOMSS index (-5%). The average VCIx for this region was 0.73. The cropped land area was only 55%, a decrease by 14%. Crop conditions are assessed as below average. 

In Eastern Anatolia, rainfall was 48% below average, which is the largest decrease among the four AEZs. TEMP and RADPAR were 1.1℃ and 5% above average, respectively. The lack of rainfall led to a decrease of biomass by 2%. The CALF decreased 16% compared to the average. With VCIx at 0.72, crop output is assessed to be below average. 

As indicated by the NDVI profile, in the Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone, the crop conditions were below average during the reporting period. RAIN was 38% below average. The temperature was slightly above average (TEMP +0.1℃). VCIx was 0.79, and CALF was down 3% and biomass decreased 10%. Production in this region is expected to be below average.

Figure 3.40 Turkey’s crop condition, April-July 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) rainfall index

(e) temperature index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                              (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Anatolia region)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region)

(l) Proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with 5YA

(m) Proportion of VHIm categories compared with 5YA

Table 3.71. Turkey's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2021

Table 3.72. Turkey's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, April - July 2021