This monitoring period from April to July covers the sowing and main growth phase of maize. Wheat had reached maturity in June. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, RAIN was below average (-7%), while TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+0.9°C and +2%). The combination of these factors resulted in a decreased BIOMSS (-7%) compared to the fifteen-year average. The NDVI development graph shows that crop conditions were below the five-year average during the monitoring period. As shown in the NDVI cluster graph and profiles, only about 11% of the agriculture areas had above-average conditions in April and May. These areas are located mainly in the northern part of Kashkadarya province, the western part of Fergana province and Surkhandarya province. And in June and early July, 26% of the agriculture areas had above-average conditions, which are mainly distributed in Khorezm province and Bukhara province. By late July, in addition to the above two provinces, parts of the agriculture areas in Samarkand province and Jizzakh province also had above-average conditions. The national average VCIx was 0.73, and the cropped arable land fraction decreased by 13%.

Overall, the conditions for crop production in Uzbekistan are unfavorable.

Regional analysis

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, NDVI was below the five-year average from April to July. The RAIN was below average (-6%), while TEMP and RADPAR were above the fifteen-year average (+0.7°C and +2%). The combination of these factors resulted in a decreased BIOMSS (-5%). The maximum VCI index was 0.71 and Cropped Arable Land Fraction decreased by 14%. Overall, crop conditions are expected to be below average. 

In the Aral Sea cotton zone, crop condition was below the five-year average according to the NDVI development graph. The TEMP was much higher than average (+2.1°C), while RAIN was below average (-57%). RADPAR was slightly above average (+4%). Affected by these factors, BIOMSS decreased by 16% compared to the fifteen-year average. The maximum VCI index was 0.77 and Cropped Arable Land Fraction decreased by 7%. Overall crop prospects are unfavorable.

Figure 3.43. Uzbekistan crop condition, April-July 2021

Table 3.77 Uzbekistan's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 15YA, April- July 2021

Table 3.78 Uzbekistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 5YA, April- July 2021