The report covers the harvest period for the rainfed crops and the sowing of irrigated winter wheat and horticultural crops. The 2021 rainfed cereal harvest was completed in July.  Harvest of the minor winter wheat crop will take place in November. The total cereal production in the country is expected to be around 4 million tonnes for the 2020/2021 season. This includes the winter wheat crop, which is expected to be above average. The conducive rainfall throughout the season, favourable weather conditions in general and on-time provision of production inputs provided a favorable environment for the attainment of high crop yields. Minor and localized crop losses in parts of Southern and Western provinces occurred due to infestations of African Migratory Locust (AML).  Regular control operations minimized the impact on agricultural output.

Rainfall showed a 54% negative departure from the 15YA. Temperature (TEMP) was also lower than the 15YA by 0.5°C, whereas radiation (RADPAR) showed a positive anomaly by 3% and potential biomass production (BIOMSS) showed a negative departure by 14%. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) showed a 2% increase and maximum VCI value was 0.88. Based on the  NDVI profiles, 12.2% of the cultivated area was above normal, 33.3% was close to normal,  and 54.4% of the cultivated area had a negative departure attributed to the early ending of the rainy season. The observed rainfall deficit indicates drier conditions, which facilitated harvest. It had limited impact on the crops. Overall, crop conditions were fair.

Regional Analysis

CropWatch considers four main crop production zones in Zambia, namely the Northern high rainfall zone, Central-eastern and southern plateau, Western semi-arid plain and Luangwa Zambezi rift valley. 

In the Northern high rainfall zone, precipitation decreased by 41%, temperature was near average (-0.4°C), while the radiation increased by 4%. In this zone the reduction in rainfall affected the estimated potential biomass by a 7% decrease over the 15YA, however the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) remained at 100% with no departure from the 5YA and VCIx was at 0.90. 

In the Central-eastern and southern plateau, the precipitation decreased by 64% and temperatures by -0.5°C, while the radiation increased by 2%. VCIx was at 0.90. This region forms the main agriculture production of Zambia. 

In the Western semi-arid plain the rainfall departed by -94% and temperatures by -0.3°C while radiation increased by 2%. These conditions affected biomass production with a reduction by 27% as a result of rainfall reduction and low water holding capacity of the predominant sandy soils in this region. 

In the Luangwa Zambezi rift valley, the rainfall departed by -81%, temperatures were also below average (-0.5°C) and radiation increased by 2%. Estimated biomass was reduced by 17%. This region is associated with low rainfall and normally affected by drought and dry spells.

Table 3.83 Zambia's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2021

Table 3.84 Zambia's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2021

Figure 3.46 Zambia 's crop condition, April-July 2021

Figure A: Phenology of major crops

Figure.B: Time series rainfall profile

Figure.C: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure.D: Time series temperature profile

Figure.X Maximum VCI

Figure.E: Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Figure.F:  Proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with 5YA

Figure.G: Proportion of VHIm categories compared with 5YA