After a brief overview of the agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 then presents China's crop prospects (section 4.2), describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (section 4.3). Section 4.4 describes trade prospects of major cereals and soybean. Additional information on the agro-climatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces is listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 Overview

Most of the summer crops, such as semi-late rice, maize and soybean, were in the field during the reporting period. This period also covers the harvest of early rice and winter wheat. The sowing of late rice was completed in July. The agro-climatic conditions were quite favorable, with temperature slightly above average (+0.1°C), rainfall and RADPAR near average. This was beneficial for crop growth and VCIx reached a high value of 0.94 at the national scale.

According to the time series rainfall profile, above-average rainfall was observed nationwide in mid-May and late July. Nearly all of the main agricultural regions of China recorded above-average rainfall, with the largest positive departure occurring in Huanghuaihai (+50%). The only exception was Southern China (-12%). Excessive rainfall (positive departures by more than 20%) occured mainly in the provinces in Huanghuaihai (Hebei, Henan and Shandong), Lower Yangtze region (Jiangsu, Anhui and Zhejiang), Inner Mongolia (Inner Mongolia) and Northeast China (Heilongjiang and Liaoning). The largest positive departure was observed in Hebei province (+62%). In late July, typhoon In-Fa in connection with monsoon rains, exacerbated by climate change, affected large areas in Henan, Hebei, Shanxi and Beijing. The record-setting precipitation caused regional floods which affected both urban and rural areas. The floods damaged maize and peanuts, the two dominant crops grown in the region. At the country level, rainfall anomalies fluctuated largely over time and space. As can be seen from the spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, 64.1% of the cropped areas recorded slightly below-average precipitation, with the rainfall departure within -25mm/dekad. 25.6% of the cropped areas, mainly located in Huanghuaihai and some parts in Northeast China (western Heilongjiang) and Southwest China (eastern Sichuan), received significantly above-average rainfall (more than +90mm/dekad) during middle July. 10.4% of crop areas experienced the largest positive departure of rainfall (more than +120mm/dekad) during middle May and the largest negative rainfall departure (more than -60mm/dekad) during middle July, occurred mainly in some parts of Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan and Guangdong provinces.

Three of the main agricultural regions in China recorded above-average temperature (Northeast China, +0.1℃; Lower Yangtze region, +0.3℃; Southern China, +0.7℃), Southwest China recorded average temperature, and the other regions all recorded below-average temperatures with departures ranging from -0.1°C to -0.3°C. Temperatures fluctuated during the monitoring period as follows: 50.1% of the cultivated regions in Loess region, southern Huanghuaihai, northern Lower Yangtze region and northern Southwest China had negative temperature anomalies by more than -1.5℃ in early April. 25.8% of the cropped areas in northern Huanghuaihai, Inner Mongolia and Northeast China had negative temperature anomalies by more than -1.5℃ in early May, late May and early June, and had positive temperature anomalies exceeding +1.5℃ in middle July. The remaining 24.1% of the cultivated regions in Southern China and southern parts of Lower Yangtze region and Southwest China had almost all positive temperature anomalies throughout the monitoring period. RADPAR had the largest negative anomalies in Huanghuaihai and Southwest China (-4%), and the biggest positive anomalies in Southern China (+9%).

As for BIOMSS, the situation was quite different among all the main producing regions, with the departures between -3% (Huanghuaihai, Inner Mongolia) and +12% (Southern China). CALF increased in the Loess region (+2%) and Inner Mongolia (+1%) as compared to the 5YA, indicating that the cultivated areas in these two regions are quite promising. The remaining regions all showed average CALF. The VCIx values were higher than 0.9 in almost all the main producing regions of China, with values between 0.92 and 0.98, except for the Loess region (0.88).

In terms of the proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with the 5-year average, the 16-day phases from April to Mid-June shared almost the same pattern, while the last three phases had slightly below to below average anomalies in around 20% of the cropped areas. According to the proportion of different drought categories compared with the 5-year average, less than 10% of the cropped areas had moderate to severe drought conditions throughout the monitoring period.

Table 4.1 CropWatch agro-climatic and agronomic indicators for China, April to July 2021, departure from 5YA and 15YA

Figure 4.1 China crop calendar

Figure 4.2 China spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, April-July 2021

Figure 4.3 China spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, April-July 2021

Figure 4.4 China spatial distribution of temperature profiles, April-July 2021

Figure 4.5 China cropped and uncropped arable land, by pixel, April-July 2021

Figure 4.6 China biomass departure map from 15YA, by pixel, April-July 2021

Figure 4.7 China maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), by pixel, April-July 2021

Figure 4.8 Time series rainfall profile for China

Figure 4.9 the proportion of NDVI anomaly categories from April to July 2021

Figure 4.10 Proportion of different drought categories from April to July 2021