4.2 China's winter crops production

The multi-source remote sensing data such as Sentinel 1/2, Landsat 8 and Chinese satellite data such as Gaofen-1 were combined with the latest meteorological information, the yield of China's staple grain and oil crops (mainly including maize, rice, wheat and soybean) in 2021 was quantitatively predicted by integration of remote sensing index model, agro-meteorological yield estimation model. Based on GVG APP, 142,379 ground-based actual measurement samples covering 145 counties (or districts) in Northeast, North China Plain, Northwest, Southwest and other major agricultural production areas were collected. Combined with the latest national 10 m resolution cropland data, crop area was estimated using Big Data analysis method.

Total crop production in 2021 is expected to be 638.87 million tonnes, an increase of 7.44 million tonnes or 1.2% up from last year. Among them, the total output of summer crops (including maize, semi-late rice, late rice, spring wheat, soybeans, tuber crops and other minor crops) is expected to be 472.7 million tonnes, an increase of 6.379 million tonnes or 1.4% over 2020; the total output of winter crops in 2021 is estimated to be 132.48 million tonnes using the latest remote sensing data, an increase of about 982 thousand tonnes or 0.7% year-on-year. Planted area and yield of summer cropsincreased by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively (Table 4.2).

Table 4.2 Review results of winter wheat production in China's major summer grain-producing provinces and cities in 2021

Maize

Due to market factors such as the continued rise in maize prices, China's maize planted area increases by 1.8% to 41,463 thousand ha in 2021, an increase of 724 thousand ha. Although floods and other disasters occurred in some areas during the maize reproductive period, sufficient precipitation was generally favorable to maize yield formation, and national maize yields are expected to increase by 0.7%. Total maize production will reach 231.62 million tonnes, an increase of 5.52 million tonnes (Table 4.3). As the largest maize-producing region in China, the Northeastreceived abundant rainfall, creating good agro-meteorological conditions for maize production. Together with the year-on-year increase in maize planted area in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia, maize production is expected to increase by 5.1%, 3.1%, 3.8% and 4.6%, respectively; Shandong, Hebei and Shanxi have good agro-meteorological conditions during the maize reproductive period, and maize yields are expected to increase by 3.9%, 4.8% and 1.0% from last year, respectively. In Gansu and Shaanxi, the temporary low precipitation during the fertility period of maize, resulted in poor growth condition, and maize production is expected to decrease by 5.2% and 2.2%, respectively;

Table 4.3 China's maize, rice, wheat and soybean production (thousand tonnes ) and variation (%), 2021

Affected by the flooding in July, the production of maize in Henan Province in 2021, was 15.713 million tonnes, a decrease of 182 thousand tonnes, or 1.1%. Nearly 1/4 of the maize in Hebi, and 15.1 thousand hectares and 14.5 thousand hectares of maize in Xinxiang and Anyang was damaged by floods, with maize production in Hebi, Xinxiang, and Anyang decreasing by 24.7%, 3.5%, and 2.2%, respectively; Zhoukou, the largest maize-producing city in Henan, was observed with a 1.3% decrease in maize production; Pingdingshan, Xuchang, and Kaifeng also had a small reduction in maize production. Strong precipitation at the same time brought sufficient water for maize in Nanyang and Zhumadian in southern Henan, Shangqiu in the east, Puyang in the northeast which is favorable for maize, production increased by 1.1%, 1.1%, 0.8% and 3.2% respectively, which narrowed the maize production drop caused by flooding.

Rice

The total national rice production is expected to be 202.80 million tonnes, an increase of 0.8% and 1.62 million tonnes; of which early rice production is 33.52 million tonnes, an increase of 0.2%, semi-late rice/single rice production is expected to be 134.14 million tonnes, an increase of 1.3%, and late rice production is expected to be 35.14 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.4%.

The national early rice planting area was 5,029.9 thousand hectares, a decrease of 1.4%, and the area shrank by 71.5 thousand hectares, but still higher than in 2019. Except for Fujian Province, where early rice yields declined, early rice yields increased in the remaining major producing provinces. Early rice yields in Hubei Province recovered by 4.7%, the largest increase in early rice producing provinces. The increase in national early rice yields offset the impact of shrinking planted area, with a slight increase of 0.2% production. Early rice production in four provinces including Anhui, Guangxi, Hunan and Hubei increased from 2020.

Since the sowing of the semi-late/single rice, the agro-meteorological conditions in the main rice producing areas are generally normal, and the average yield increased by 0.9% and the total output increased by 1.69 million tonnes from 2020. Semi-late/single rice production in Guizhou, Hubei, Liaoning, Sichuan, and Yunnan is expected to increase by 5.3%, 4.9%, 4.3%, 2.8% and 2.8%, respectively. Weather are more favorable compared with 2020 in Heilongjiang and Jilin, resulting in 2.9% and 0.7% increase of single rice production.  The risk of flooding in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the rivers in the northeast still exists, and the local farmers should be prepared if disasters ocurr.

Soybeans

The national soybean area in 2021 is 7807.5 thousand hectares, a decrease of 132.3 thousand ha compared with 7939.8 thousand hectares in 2020. The national average soybean yield is expected to increase slightly by 0.3%, and the total output will reach 14.37 million tonnes, down 1.4%. In terms of the provinces, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, the two major producing provinces, was observed with largest reduce ofsoybean planted area by 8.0% and 3.0%, mainly due to the agricultural policy and the high maize price. Farmers prefer maize rather than soybeans. More than average rainfall was observed in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia which provide sufficient water for soybean, although causing local Flooding. Favorable conditions benefitted soybean growth and yield formation, resulting in an increase of soybean yields. Soybean production in Heilongjiang Province is predicted to be 5.3% lower than 2020. Soybean yields in Inner Mongolia increased which compensate the impact of decreased planted areas, and soybean production is expected to increase by 1.3%. The remaining soybean-producing provinces and regions are all expected to close to 2020.

Wheat

The total winter wheat production in 2021 is estimated at 122.28 million tonnes, an increase of 1.13 million tonnes or 0.9%. The total planted area is 23,952.6 thousand hectares, up by 0.5%, and the average yield of winter wheat was 5,105.1 kg/ha, 0.5% higher than 2020 (Table 4.4). National wheat production is estimated at 127.98 million tonnes, an increase of 929 thousand tonnes compared with 2020; total spring wheat production is 5.7 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.20 million tonnes.

As for the provincial level, both planted area and yield of winter wheat in Hebei, Anhui and Shandong increased from 2020, and the output of winter wheat increased by 0.31 million tonnes, 0.15 million tonnes and 1.14 million tonnes respectively. Water deficit affected Shanxi's winter wheat, and both the yield and planted area decreased by 1.3% and 2.3%, resulting in a 3.5% decrease in winter wheat output. The winter wheat planted area in Jiangsu and Henan decreased slightly. The two provinces were also affected by strong winds and heavy rains in May which resulted in wheat lodging locally, leading to a slight decrease of wheat yield by 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. As a result, winter wheat output dropped by 0.12 million tonnes and 0.27 million tonnes in Jiangsu and Henan, respectively. The area of winter wheat in Hubei, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased, while the average winter wheat yield increased. The departure of winter wheat production from 2020 in those five provinces is less than 100 thousand tonnes.

Table 4.4 Winter wheat production in the main producing provinces in China,2021

4.3 Regional analysis

Figures 4.11 through 4.17 present crop condition information for each of China’s seven agricultural regions. The provided information is as follows: (a) Phenology of major crops; (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the current season up to July 2021 to the previous season, to the five-year average (5YA), and to the five-year maximum; (c) Spatial NDVI patterns for April to July 2021 (compared to the (5YA)); (d) NDVI profiles associated with the spatial patterns under (c); (e) maximum VCI (over arable land mask); and (f) biomass for April to July 2021. Additional information about agro-climatic indicators and BIOMSS for China is provided in Annex A.