This section analyzes the import and export situation of the maize, rice, wheat, and soybean in China for 2021.

Maize

In the first half of the year, China imported 15.3037 million tonnes of maize, an increase of 3.2 times over the first half of last year. The main import sources were the United States and Ukraine, accounting for 57.8% and 41.7% of the total import respectively, with an import volume of US $4.048 billion. The export of maize was 3.9 thousand tonnes, an increase of 129% over the first half of last year, and the export volume was US $1.884 million.

Rice

In the first half of the year, China imported 2,554.9 thousand tonnes of rice, more than double the first half of last year. The main import sources were Pakistan, Vietnam, Myanmar, India and Thailand, accounting for 23.2%, 22.0%, 20.9%, 18.4% and 7.5% of the total import respectively, with an import volume of US $1.196 billion. The export of rice was 1,317.8 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 3.2% over the first half of last year. It was mainly exported to South Korea, Sierra Leone and Papua New Guinea, accounting for 10.5%, 9.5% and 7.0% of the total export respectively, with an export volume of US $556 million.

Wheat

In the first half of the year, China imported 5.3678 million tonnes of wheat, an increase of 60.1% over the first half of last year. The main import sources were Canada, the United States, Australia and France, accounting for 31.5%, 27.4%, 24.4% and 12.2% of the total import respectively, with an import volume of US $1.624 billion. The export of wheat was 35.7 thousand tonnes, a significant decrease over the first half of last year. It was mainly exported to Afghanistan and Ethiopia, accounting for 62.8% and 38.9% of the total export respectively, with an export volume of US $18.4128 million.

Soybean

In the first half of the year, China imported 48.9562 million tonnes of soybeans, an increase of 8.7% over the first half of last year. The main import sources were Brazil and the United States, accounting for 53.4% and 44.1% of the total import respectively, with an import volume of US $25.435 billion. Soybean exports were 40.1 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 20.8% over the first half of last year.

Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2021

On the basis of remote sensing-based production prediction in major agricultural producing countries in 2021 and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, it is predicted that the import of major grain crop varieties will increase slightly in 2021. The details are as follows:

Maize

At present, the supply and demand of domestic maize is in a tight balance. China's demand for maize in the international market remains strong. Combined with the impact of the implementation of the Sino US economic and trade agreement, it is expected that China's maize import will increase significantly by 70.5% and export will decrease by 12.4% in 2021.

Rice

Novel coronavirus pneumonia is the main cause of the global rice market supply and demand. The price gap between China and abroad is persisting. The import of rice will keep growing in the light of the Covid-19 pandemic. The import of rice is expected to grow by 75.3% and export by 2.5% in 2021.

Wheat

Affected by drought and other natural disasters, the global wheat output has declined and the price difference at home and abroad has narrowed. It is expected that China's wheat import will increase by 20.5% and export will decrease by 10.7% in 2021.

Soybean

As the domestic soybean consumption demand remains stable and the domestic soybean output is limited, China's soybean import will maintain a steady growth. It is expected that China's soybean import will increase by 5.6% and export will decrease by 11.6% in 2021.

Figure 4.18 Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2021 (%)