According to CropWatch indicators the condition of crops was below average during this monitoring period. The drought in Canada, especially in Alberta and Manitoba during the previous quarter did not improve much,with the current period recording a negative rainfall departure (6% below average) with temperature slightly higher than normal (+0.4°C), and a1% increase in radiation.

For the major crop agricultural provinces in Canada, water deficit continued in Alberta with a negative rainfall departure (-9%) that resulted in a -8% drop in biomass production potential. In Manitoba, rainfall was above average (+14%)but still insufficient to compensate the water deficit of the last monitoring period. In other major provinces of Canada, rainfall was average with a 1%positive departure. The three provinces that produce 80% of Canada's output suffered poor weather and as a result lower crop production is forecast. The unfavorableconditions are confirmed by the NDVI development profile that remained belowaverage after June as well as the NDVI clusters and profile which show thatcrop condition gradually worsened after mid-July. Due to continuous water deficit, the fraction of cropped arable land decreased by 4% compared to last 5years average. Overall, CropWatch forecasts below average output in Canada this season.

Figure3.9. Canada crop condition, July-October 2015

)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                  (b) Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                       (d) NDVI profile